Buying rental properties in Emerging Markets - Let's talk!

Hi everyone & Happy Holidays!

I wanted to get POVs of investors on this site.
As we know, buying assets has become much harder now, competition is high, people are bidding high, and cap rates are decreasing at all time highs!
Buying an apartment tower in Toronto or Paris will yield a 2.5% cap rate for Class AA towers....

So I wanted to understand the risks of going after properties in the Middle East, South Asia, Russia, and other Asian markets.

About me:
I currently own a portfolio of 12+ unit apartment towers, grocery anchored plazas, and single tenanted Industrial properties across Calgary Canada, Ontario Canada, New Jersey, USA & Wisconsin USA.

由于竞争的艰苦程度,我一直在寻找在美国,欧洲和加拿大的交易感到沮丧。

Therefore, I am learning about what it takes to buy real estate in the Middle East mainly.

Main Points ~~~

1) Right now, cap rates are about 9% - 18% in India, Pakistan, UAE, & Saudi Arabia.
2) Getting financing at attractive rates in those countries are much harder but through family relationships, I'm able to get rates at 4% - 6%
3) My idea is to go after Class B high-rise apartment towers and Industrial properties in Class A or Class B areas of their respective country.

4)如果我可以在这些国家 /地区进行投资,我的净投资回报率(通货膨胀,税收,外汇对冲,财产维护,债务付款)每年约27% - 31%,这是疯狂的... +概念我可以提高租金以跟上通货膨胀,或增加额外租金的0.5% - 1%(超过通货膨胀率)

5)最大的问题是在南亚。...在该地区,您确实需要将手放在泥泞中才能完成交易。这是因为法规并不强,访问财产数据指标的范围很低,因此涉及更多的忙碌。幸运的是,我有一个富有联系的家庭成员,可以帮助我(他还将作为LP投资这些物业)。


我想念什么?
Any thoughts?

Thank you and have a great New Years!

Comments (15)

Jan 1, 2022 - 9:45am
Arroz con Pollo, what's your opinion? Comment below:

As you mentioned, "getting your hands dirty". Corruption is a huge part of the game in the markets you listed - you've gotta pay to play. Less regulation can provide more upside for you but also increases risk of crazy shit happening

Jan 2, 2022 - 9:54am
CrazyHorseShakira, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Local intel is a massive asset for sure. Adjusting rents for inflation is a must in places with structurally weaker currencies. Seems like you have done homework on fx hedging. Keep in mind though that we are still in a relatively low rate environment. You definitely should consider the risk reward tradeoff vs properties in less abstract places of the world (can more leverage in a more stable macro setup create that same return profile?!?). We haven't spoken about political risk. More of an issue for some than for others

  • 主要的inRE - Comm
Jan 3, 2022 - 1:57am

Yes, this is a tradeoff I'm looking into but the issue is finding good assets at fair prices. If it takes me 12 months to park my capital in a 5-unit industrial complex in a 2ndary market VS parking it in a UAE Apartment tower in less than 3 months... I think I should put the capital in the UAE.
I can't seem to find good assets at fair prices that can generate good returns.
实际上,我也从想要流动性的疲倦的所有者那里看在中东非市场上的薪金率建筑物> 12%。

this environment is insanely competitive for a non-institutional investor.
我最近收购纽瓦克,新泽西州24-unit班ss B- Apartment building.. It's going to generate about 12% annually (was a value-add deal). This deal was done with aggressive leverage and a decent interest rate.

  • Investment AnalystinPE - Other
Jan 2, 2022 - 10:34am

Legal systems is biggest risk to investments like this.

  • 主要的inRE - Comm
2022年1月3日 - 2:01 AM

Oh yes... the amount of black money, price fixing, and collusion involved is high. That's why its a big advantage to have someone trustworthy who got a good grasp of government officials. Luckily one of the Middle eastern countries is where 2 family members are well connected to higher-up official's and businessmen. My goal is to leverage my family ties there to make the transaction run smoothly with little trouble from non legal players & under-the-table handouts, and more.

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Jan 3, 2022 - 10:02am
CRESF, what's your opinion? Comment below:

我还要补充一点,虽然我是FX专家最远的事情,但我已经与投资于美国的国际投资者进行了交谈。当市场波动时,对冲成本可能会大大增加。我记得与一位德国投资者交谈,他带领我完成了他在2018年购买4%Cap Core Re的回报,而他的对冲费用是什么。令人沮丧。现在,您似乎要购买高额股票的交易,但是这些交易较高,因为您需要补偿风险(政治等)。因此,如果波动率将对冲成本增加并将您的现金收益率从10%+降低到6-7%,那么这可能仍然比美国更好,但可能不足以承受您的风险。

  • 1
  • 主要的inRE - Comm
Jan 3, 2022 - 3:04pm

This was something I didn't fully understand, can you elaborate on how the German international investor saw his returns decrease heavily? Are you saying FX hedging is an expensive cost item?

Jan 3, 2022 - 3:18pm
CRESF, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Yeah, I think he was mentioning hedging costs at that time were 300 basis points, give or take. Tough when your returns are in dollars but your obligations are in euros and hedging costs are half your returns on core US real estate.

Jan 3, 2022 - 1:35pm
Wallstreetblunders, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Complete sidenote but can I pm you? Would really appreciate your perspective on how to get the ball rolling in the RE game.

  • 主要的inRE - Comm
Jan 3, 2022 - 3:03pm

Happy to help. Let's start by asking some on here.

2022年1月4日 - 下午3:57
佣金和费用, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Its almost like.... the returns reflect the risk relative to alternative investments...

But on a serious note; what kind of price tags are you looking at, where you would purchase fx hedges?

Also, what exactly does a fx hedge look like for the investment of dollars going into a hard offshore asset? For example, as you know, you hedge against interest rate risk in the US by purchasing a cap on your interest rate for $x ; so how does that instrument look like and what is it applied to for a international real estate investment?

Jan 4, 2022 - 9:13pm
Risk Weighted Ass, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Questions for you (Been thinking about the same thing as your original post but you seem to already know more than me):

  1. How did you initially get into doing this?
  1. 我应该记住我的第一个属性吗given I do not have family connections like you?
  1. Do you know where I can find international cap rates (including historical, not just static data)?
  1. Are you not concerned about oversupply, new entrants, or vacancy rates in the Middle East? I lived in UAE recently and noticed many empty buildings, all while construction was rampant and there was no shortage of land nearby, or cheap labor workers to build (unlike the US). Not to mention the economies of these areas fluctuate based on tourism or oil, and remote work has decreased need to work in cities. Probably a reason these landlords are selling for so cheap atm and would appreciate your thoughts.
最有帮助的
  • 主要的inRE - Comm
202年1月5日2 - 12:37am

1) How did you initially get into doing this?

AnS: My story is actually boring: I started off as aCREBroker. Sold large properties and collected the commissions. I also went after development sites (Such as single family houses, land, end-of-life plazas) and invested my commissions and became a limited partner. My buying client would develop it and on average I made about 40% my original cash investments per development. I did this for 4-5yrs (started while in college).

Next: I took what I learned from my selling & buying clients and spent a-lot of time researching and learning about the real estate investment space for 4-5yrs.
In that timeframe I bought 4,,6,12 unit apartment buildings in my area. Kept doing this till I had a portfolio of retail plazas, Medical office buildings, Multifamily Apartments, but I don't buy traditional office towers.
My first year in the business as a broker... I made $0 (Not even lying). In fact I was running at a loss of $12,000. Second Yr it picked up real good and went on from there.


然后:我意识到新兴市场中的投资回报率更高。然后,我花了一些时间来研究欧洲市场,但发现它也是一个不那么高的ROI的地方。
For example. the average cap rate in France for multifamily is 2.5% and in the Netherlands its about 4% - 5%. Might as well buy a 8% cap rate 4-Plex in Wisconsin, USA.....

2) What should I keep in mind for my first properties given I do not have family connections like you?
My situation is a little unique. My uncle is a wealth oil businessman who dropped out of the 8th-grade. He hustled hard which is why he made over $100M.
BUT it's not all rainbows. He is still a not-so-good human being. He caused a-lot of damage and pain to my family and my cousins. He robbed us from a lot (not even kidding).
Now, the only reasons he works with me and as do I is because I take noBSfrom him. We have everything in writing and nothing left up to trust. He sees value in my deals and that's why he works with me... otherwise he will go out of his way to tarnish my business reputation.
I wish I had a loving uncle but sadly isn't the case.

What Can You Do?
a) Befriend developers, property managers,PEfund employees, and all commercial real estate players. Doing this will allow you to pick their brains and do this and collect as much information you need.

很难从Google找到这些新兴市场的数据。因此,建议与行业参与者交谈。直到今天,我这样做了...

b) Start researching about all theREITsin your desired country. Watch their transcripts, listen to their earnings calls. Doing this will help you learn about the country's real estate market at a MACRO level.
Follow the portfolios of the major real estate guys in your country. See what they're doing.

3) Do you know where I can find international cap rates (including historical, not just static data)?
This is hard. Even I cannot find data online. So what do I do? Well, I cold-call and cold-email tenants, real estate developers, property owners (if public information is there), property managers, building inspectors, appraisal guys. I do this and collect data. I also study the neighbouring properties (conduct comparative analysis).
You get the idea.
You need to get you hands dirty.

The saying I use is ~~~ "Here in the US, we have the privilege of using large shovels to dig for gold from a large pile of Cow's shit at a low cost. In the Emerging markets, we use our hands wrapped in plastics bags when digging for gold from a large pile of Cow's shit.
(可能是一个奇怪的说法,但您明白了)

5) Are you not concerned about oversupply, new entrants, or vacancy rates in the Middle East? I lived in UAE recently and noticed many empty buildings, all while construction was rampant and there was no shortage of land nearby, or cheap labor workers to build (unlike the US). Not to mention the economies of these areas fluctuate based on tourism or oil, and remote work has decreased need to work in cities. Probably a reason these landlords are selling for so cheap atm and would appreciate your thoughts.

是的。这是阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯的主要问题。在巴基斯坦,租金的需求很高,因为俄罗斯也很高。
Turkey also has good Apartment buildings.
Now, you don't need to buy Apartment buildings only... You can also pursue Industrial properties. Industrial tenants usually stay at a property for 5-10 years. Which is great. ALSO these leases are usually net-net.

I would say to look for sub-regions of the middle-east where the people who move there and already live there have lower income and not enough for a down-payment on a house. In such areas, tenants would stay as tenants for 3-5yrs until they're making more money.
归根结底,迪拜是更多富裕的人居住的地方。我敢打赌,普通阿联酋居民并不那么富裕,需要租用。
Also, you can look to retail plazas.
Apartments are one asset class... Don't limit yourself to one area if you're so new. Be wider in scope.

202年1月5日2 - 4:13am
Risk Weighted Ass, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Thank you! Very helpful.

In case you are interested, regarding historical cap rates, if you search CAPR on Bloomberg, they have their own historical data, as well as data purchased from MSCI and Moody's, broken into different sectors of RE, such as Industrial, Commercial, Hospitals, Residential, ectetera. You can also go straight to Moody's or MSCI and purchase the data, but I believe it is only for the US.

I noticed CBRE has quarterly international data, which you may be able to look at each report and2ManBetX登陆 to backtrack cap rates, or just purchase historical rates from them to have a more full data set.

I only asked because I don't want to pay and was hoping you may have a free way, which it seems you do, with the caveat of inputting time and effort. I have tried asking individuals in EM, but gotten variances as wide as 2%-14% cap rates in the Philippines for example. I suppose I need to ask more people, especially property managers as you mentioned. Thanks again.

2022年1月5日 - 4:43 AM
gsssa 2050, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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