Who's feeling pressured to buy a home before rate hikes?

Goldman expects a rate hike starting in July 2022 and another one in November 2022, then two 25bps此后几年每年徒步旅行。在这里,谁感到压力很大,即使他们现在不一定想要一家房屋,也要在加息之前购买房屋。该银行帐户看起来不错,但是我在情感上和成熟度上明智地购买房屋。我喜欢在我的能力下生活的职业和运动灵活性,如果我真的愿意的话,也相当流动。自从去年以来,我非常尊重的人一直在租赁物业上加载,并试图在利率上升之前购买尽可能多的收购。我很想锁定3%30年的抵押贷款,并且当我最终在几年内以5-6%的利率购买东西时,我不想踢自己。

Who here is on a similar boat or what wise words of wisdom can you share?

Comments (51)

2021年10月31日 - 下午4:22

I'd recommend looking at it seriously, especially with rent prices where they're at right now (assuming you didn't get a longer term COVID deal locked in). I have a co-worker and her 1 bed COVID deal net-rental after discounts is ~$3200. The same units right now are listed well above $4500.

我知道人们想要灵活性,但让我们真正地在附近跳来跳去的频率是真实的……通常人们为期待性支付房租,无论如何他们永远不会使用。上面的类似1间卧室的价格约为80万美元 - $ 100万美元,如果您相信(我不同意试图计时市场),这种公牛跑步将会降温,那么首付款的隐含机会成本是这么多。我是早期的职业生涯,固定利率为2.5%。当我进行数学时,在超过80%的案例中,我最好在财务上购买与租金。

2021年10月31日 - 下午4:36

当您购买时,您是否让“生活方式蠕变”发生,或者是与以前的公寓或多或少相似的新地方?我认识到,公寓是建造的,感觉就像是“房屋”,而公寓是一个商业上聪明的概念,其设计为不像房屋,并促进进出人们的进出,对细节的关注较少。

我们不是律师。We're investment bankers. We didn't go to Harvard. We Went to Wharton!
  • 1
2021年10月31日-6:05 pm

I let myself pay more all in than I would traditionally for rent because of the whole "you're building equity" argument. I sized down but went up in quality if that makes sense because I think quality > size for long term value retention (poorly maintained 1br worse off than a nice, well renovated studio). I'll be in a renovated studio in a building with amenities. I had also generally been living in a lower cost option so some might say I splurged but I can manage with my current finances.

我的抵押税 +税 + HOA比我曾经的租金还要多一点,但仍在手段上。

  • InterninRE - Comm
2021年10月31日- 5:44pm

As long as the S&P keeps pumping ~12% a year it's hard for me to justify tying up $200k in an investment that yields 3-5%

Nov 3, 2021 - 2:52am

Actually a decent point which I've thought about a lot. Keep coming back to diversification and not banking on this insane bull run in the market. Always get cucked every year by the market constantly outperforming due to a variety of reasons but feel that the real estate investments should be more steady if and when things go to shit market-wise.

  • 1
  • Associate 1inRE - Comm
2021年10月31日 - 下午6:17

I'm with you. It eventually makes sense to buy a home if you have a family and plan to be in the same place for 10+ years.

But if you unexpectedly have to move after 3 years, that home will definitely have cost you more than renting unless: a) equities did not appreciate over that 3 year time horizon or b) your home value experienced massive appreciation during that 3 year period

2021年10月31日 - 下午6:17

我(实质性的)从爸爸妈妈银行(Bank of爸爸妈妈)购买了我的第一个房屋,所以我正在等待加息来他妈的必须借钱的平民的购买力,同时说资本正在享受股权泡沫。

最有帮助的
2021年10月31日- 6:50pm

这是正确的。财产价值与利率成反比。当利率始终处于低点并锚定0%时,这会导致房地产价值飙升,因为人们开始购买房屋。当价格高时,财产值会降低。有人提出了这样的论点,他们喜欢在价格高时购买房屋,因为您总是可以将高价再融资,购买您不能再为高购买价格再融资。但是,仅考虑一下我的脑海,我也可以想象一下如果价格很高,这通常是在牛市的结束时,因此财产价值应该遵循该牛市,因此不能100%确定该如何为财产发挥作用估值。

我们不是律师。We're investment bankers. We didn't go to Harvard. We Went to Wharton!
  • 5
2021年10月31日- 6:56pm

Yeah but this assumes a perfectly efficient market. There are tons of non-economic reasons for people to want to sell homies. The home I bought was owned by a couple that had paid it off and had it for a rental the last few years. They're moving away from纽约and didn't want to be landlords in retirement. I bought it for a very competitive price.

  • VPinRE - Comm
Nov 1, 2021 - 9:46am

Yes and no. It depends. I got a 30 year fixed on my house in the high 2s. I don't plan to move for awhile. So it doesnt matter which way rates go for me. I am locked in. You are correct about refinancing, but realistically it wont matter. Now for those on ARMs, they will get hurt. The real question is what % of households are on an ARM vs fixed. If its higher ARM, then yes, there will likely be some declines in prices.

My other theory is that people have been conditioned for the last decade to sell houses for a profit. The reality is if rates go up, sure prices will come down, but I believe transaction volume will decline as well.

2021年10月31日 - 11:50 pm

诚实地不会太担心这一点。无论如何,抵押贷款利率将上涨,无论如何,住房价格都会停止上涨。

Im obviously simplifying, but plot the monthly mortgage payment for an average house and it's the same as in 1980. (At least in Canada, where the market has been crazy these past few years)

Nov 2, 2021 - 2:31pm

这可能是真的。您的意思是调整通货膨胀后它们一样吗?

Array
2021年11月2日至下午4:00

是的,调整后CPI通货膨胀。抱歉,没有足够清晰。

For those who are interested here is a graph of the monthly mortage payment for an average priced house in Canada, with a base year of 1981. (After adjusting forCPIinflation, so it's in real terms)https://pasteboard.co/JZ17RIr7u0ri.png

Obviously doesn't factor in the higher downpayment, but I was very surprised to find that so maybe it can interest some of you.

Nov 1, 2021 - 6:23am

People seem to forget that rates were on the rise pre-Covid and prices were still rising. Timing the market is tough. If you see something you like, and it's within your means, get it. If you don't plan to move in the next few years, you should come out on top. Don't forget about the tax deductions from owning a home and the fact that the first $250k in capital gains are tax-free.

2021年11月1日 - 下午4:45

我只是谨慎地根据您(或某些银行)的宏观预测做出生活决策。事实是,没人知道会发生什么。

  • VPinRE - Comm
Nov 1, 2021 - 5:10pm

如果利率上升,整个RE市场(地狱,金融体系)将崩溃。

We're doing deals in the 3 cap territory. Loans are mid 2s. Any rate hike will make our deals negatively arbitraged, and will upend the entire system.

Theoretically rates won't go up, because there's so much money out there need to be deployed. Distressed sales won't happen and said interest rates risks won't be perceived and realized by investors/lenders.

但是,总会有不可预见的事件会颠覆世界。Covid做了一段时间,并没有太多推动,但加快了日期零售/办公行业所需的创新。然后,由于丰富的现金和强大的基本面,金融体系反弹。

Long story short - buy the house when you have a real need for it (ie, about to get married, move in with someone). If you're still young and bouncing around, hold off a bit. Try not to time these things as no one has a crystal ball. I would try to not feel bad if your home price "go down" on Zillow Zestimate, or feel good vice versa, since the decision to buy a home isn't an investment decision but a lifestyle choice.

2021年11月1日至8:46 PM

The smartest thing a younger person can do it to buy a duplex/triplex/whatever in a less cool area where the rents cover the PITI while living in a unit for free, or close to it. Cheap enough to where when you want to buy a "real" house one day you don't need to sell to get your down back. Then every few years you do a cash out refi and treat the sucker as a piggy bank. That or just build the equity. Doing so will be your retirement plan one day. Might not be as cool to live not in the hippest area but so long as its not horrible it doesn't matter.

2021年11月1日至10:11 pm

Correct, it takes time and patience, maybe even a year or two of looking, but opportunities come up and there are ways to be creative financially. This is doable in Tier 1 HCOL cities in gentrifying areas. But to your point these aren't just sitting on zillow on the daily, takes a bit of work...but seems like you'd rather just be snarky.

编辑:主题的全部要点是在问建议...您的MD是否要求您在最新音调或其他内容中更改字体,Sheesh

Nov 2, 2021 - 6:03pm

我知道有人这样做。他在经济上没有任何精致的东西,而是在工厂工作。他只是住的地方,廉价住房不是最好的,不是最糟糕的。由于他们居住在其中一个单元,并且是第一次买家,因此获得了四倍的首付。其他3个单位付给他住在那里,这不仅仅是自由的,甚至不计算公平。

是的,这并不总是那么容易,但并非不可能。

Expert amateur seeking position as amateur expert.

Nov 2, 2021 - 8:20am

Great strategy in theory but overdone and hard to find in places worth living. Only places that exist in my market like this are in really rough areas that are not getting better anytime soon.

Array

Nov 2, 2021 - 9:31am

I live in Toronto so I am waiting for the rate hike to force a sell off since everyone in this city is levered up to their balls. The amount of parents who have taken out a HELOC on their home to pay the down payment on a 700,000 bachelor condo for their kid that makes 35,000 is insane. If you ever want to feel good about your domestic real estate market please take a look at listings here :(

Nov 2, 2021 - 10:18am

The real estate market bubble may be bigger than the equity market bubble, which is saying something. In fact, it might be the biggest real estate bubble ever. Look at the Case-Shiller home price index. Don't buy the top if you don't need to (i.e. if you are just in the exploratory phase). Rates will get raised by 2023 (probably in 2022) and buying pressure should at least moderate somewhat.

  • ProspectinRE - Comm
2021年11月2日至3:18 pm

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2022年1月18日 - 上午11:22

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