$$$比特币是下一个郁金香灯泡还是下一个戴尔？
2009年6月，比特币仅为0.0001美元；之后，一年后，比特币的价格上涨至0.07美元。在那段时间里，我听到了“比特币”这个名字，但懒惰地将其视为PayPal的派生。今年早些时候，可能是参加聚会的晚些时候，我在当地的扑克游戏中再次听到了比特币。然后，一个比特币的价格约为3,000美元。我立即回家进行研究。
现在，比特币的价格为3,283.79美元，低于近5,000美元的高价。这可能部分是由于诸如杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）这样的企业重量级人物将比特币称为欺诈。在文章中"Jamie Dimon Slams Bitcoin as a 'Fraud,'"杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）说，他将因“愚蠢”而解雇任何员工交易比特币。
The cryptocurrency "won't end well," he told an investor conference in New York on Tuesday, predicting it will eventually blow up. "It's a fraud" and "worse than tulip bulbs."
In bitcoin's case, Dimon said he's skeptical authorities will allow a currency to exist without state oversight, especially if something goes wrong. "Someone's going to get killed and then the government's going to come down," he said. "You just saw in China, governments like to control their money supply."
Moreover, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management Howard Marks, another business heavyweight, questioned Bitcoin's intrinsic value,
在我看来，数字货币不过是一种毫无根据的时尚（甚至是金字塔计划），基于愿意将价值归因于人们所付出的价值几乎没有或没有的东西。
我也一开始主要对比特币持怀疑态度，因为我找不到比特币的内在价值。但是，不加人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）进一步鼓舞了我，他对比特币有鼓励的话。
YouTube视频可以在此处找到：
我认为比特币还不是价值交换的媒介。但是，我认为比特币由于网络效应而拥有光明的未来。当越来越多的人拥有它并使用它时，比特币将成为一种价值交换的一种常见媒介，因此，政府不可能以主要方式打击比特币的难度，即使不是不可能。那就是他们在游戏中实施一条规则太晚。
Still, Bitcoin is prone to risks. The major risk is still government and the fact that Bitcoin is making financing illegal activities easier.
另一个风险是另一种加密货币将超越比特币，因此，将使比特币毫无价值。我不会主张在比特币和以太坊之外进行投资，因为其他鲜为人知的加密货币（如Penny Stocks）可能会看到其价值降至零。
What are your thoughts? Do you think Bitcoin as it goes further down in price, will be a good investment for the future? Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in market capitalization? Are you a current investor in cryptocurrencies?
Comments (24)
中国shut down their exchanges today (last night) due to pretty big capital flight out through bitcoin.
嗯..如何开始..我只是说，当人们恐慌销售时，现在就以折扣价说出结论。这是交易的未来...如果这是一个骗局计划，当市值约为100亿美元时，所有骗子将花费数十亿美元……或者比特币的价格从几年前的几美分开始。如果您说“是”骗局方案，那么当然，这个世界上有许多低帽硬币只是多层营销/金字塔方案/泵和转储方案。我认为区块链技术的创新将改变这个世界，并最终导致世界经济的创造性破坏。政府可以规范但不能禁止整个事情，除非这是一种专制的运营方式。诸如购买/销售非法产品之类的论点是另一个故事。如果他们每天出售撞车事故并杀死人，您将无法禁止整个汽车行业吗？同样的论点与加密货币有关，是的，它们是一些缺点，但是加密货币提供的潜在好处是无限的。
我完全同意。政府在太受欢迎时不能禁止比特币，但政府当然可以对其进行调节。
The Warren Buffet way, ehh?
"Be fearful and other people are greedy." -- Warren Buffet
"Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful" - WarrenBuffett
I dont know too much about bitcoing, but I would make the following observations:
我相当确定这不是霍华德（Howard）的最新信，在最近的一封信中，他承认他做了更多的研究并稍微改变了他的曲调（不会翻转，但负面的程度较低）
I am dubious on the effect of Dimon's words on the size of the move, I think much bigger effect was the China news and then it was just exposed how much of bitcoin is in unstable hands (i.e. people who just saw its gone up X% and dont want to miss out, i.e. classic bubble correction).
People need to remember there are a lot of individuals/companies that profit from just saying stuff, always keep in mind what someones economic interest is
任何人都在不正确理解细节的情况下购买比特币（通过细节，我不仅意味着您可以解释一个区块链是什么，但我的意思是我认为能够自己开始使用加密货币）是疯狂的
It might be the future of payment, it might not, the future isn't written and anyone that acts like it is delusional and anyone investing as if it is should not be managing money
All assets go up and down, but usually there are people who make money irregardless of the moves, always strive to be one of these people if you want to be rich
This is gold.
正确，在H Marks的最新备忘录中，他承认，如果您将其视为货币而不是安全性，则应提出购买加密货币的论点。
Also a great point, the first rule about financial news media is that everyone talks their own book. Dimon invested heavily inJPM's own blockchain technology at a substantial cost. So if alternatives become widespread and he has to eventually switch over, for better alignment with JPM's external stakeholders, his decision will have been a bad one for his shareholders. Naturally he doesn't want to see Bitcoin or any other crypto become widely prevalent.
And for the record, there are already over 100 cryptocurrency hedge funds in the US. I agree the majority of people clamoring to get in on the action are certified insane, but anyone who's secured the confidence and funding of enough well capitalized ppl/institutions to start a fund, is going to get extremely rich off the 2/20 fee structure - and that I respect.
"And for the record, there are already over 100 cryptocurrency hedge funds in the US." Can you list some notable crypto hedge funds?
因此，您需要成为计算机科学家才能投资加密？在任何阶段，您都不了解该业务模型/技术背后的技术吗？我认为依靠专家的观点和研究适合加密/任何技术等投资。
This is a good point, but because cryptos are so incredibly early stage, I feel like reading a few books & informing yourself on blockchain technology doesn't give you enough of a perspective to gauge whether or not the nuances of each specific one are unique and valuable enough to gain widespread prevalence over time.
And I think we're comparing apples to oranges by looking at crypto and publicly traded tech. I see crypto more along the lines of early stageVC.
While I don't work inVC,我相信the bigVCfunds hire mostly ex-entrepreneurs or those who have extremely deep understanding of the technology in question, because only they can reliably evaluate if an early-stage product could translate to massive adoption, since they understand all of the stakeholders that will make it a success or failure.
你在这里提出非常好的要点derivstrading
But I think Jamie Dimon is being nice, warning people to get out of cryptocurrencies before they take a huge financial loss. A lot of smart-minded investors are thinking cryptocurrencies are going to trash right now. They could be wrong. I am tempted to invest a small amount of money into Ethereum if it drops further.
我不完全理解比特币或区块链am still learning about it myself. I think it's a fascinating topic, regardless of whether your thinking is more in line with Jamie Dimon's or more in line with Marc Andreeseen's. I think there are valid points on both sides. I'm somewhere in between because I haven't learned enough about it yet but I lean more in Andreeseen's direction. My thought process goes something like this. It's easy to say that this currency isn't built on trust and that the advantages of true peer to peer payment will be enough to carry Bitcoin to success, but it's not that simple. Trust is highly important. Also, while the USD is a fiat currency, it is backed by the full faith of the US government, which, for now, still has some value. Bitcoin is only worth what other people are willing to pay for it, as Howard Marks mentions with the gold analogy. That being said, the "implied value" of gold to human civilization has outlasted any governments' currency. Many governments and societies have had currencies and those currencies have come and gone. So there is something to be said for currencies or currency-like assets that society values. Maybe Bitcoin is getting to the point of critical mass where it can achieve that sort of value. Today though I agree with Howard Marks in that it is atradingsardine. No viable currency can regularly fluctuate in value by 20% a week, or whatever the move has been for bitcoin over the past few days. In the long-term though I think this could be quite interesting. I think the fact that there is a fixed amount of bitcoin also has significant value. Think about how much value the USD has lost over the years in real terms due to the effects of inflation and continued government issuance of new currency. No more bitcoin can be created other than the predetermined amount remaining to be mined. If it is a viable currency in the long-run, then in my mind that fact has significant value and protection against dilution that traditional currencies can't answer. In the end, I wonder if Bitcoin is only the initial vehicle in this space. Maybe it's the vehicle/currency using this technology that has the first-mover advantage but is eventually replaced by another one or something similar. I refer to Peter Thiel's concept of last mover advantage here where the last institution or company to create orders of magnitude innovation in a particular area ends up dominating.
I'm still on the fence about what crypto's actually are or will be. Are they a commodity, are they a currency, etc.? At this point I cant see how, or why, anyone would be interested in a medium of value exchange that fluctuates by 25% in a day or 1000% in a year.
"Not me. Im in my prime"
One of the issues with bitcoin is that it is both a store of value and a currency. Currently, it is too slow to be used as a proper currency, but the implementation of SegWit will lay the foundation for the Lightning Network, which could alleviate that issue.
I agree with a recent anology I heard comparing current blockchain tech to the maturity of what the internet was at in the early 90's. Very few people knew what email was, and even fewer used it but we knew it ran on the internet. I think, if it ever gets there, the fluctuation in value will stabilize when we see bitcoin's value run somewhere into the $100,000's. The dotcom bubble was in the trillions, and we're just breaking past the 100 billion mark in total crypto market capitalization this year, so I don't think that's a total stretch to say when you start to explore the possibilities for the uses of the tech.
Are we in a blockchain bubble now? No. No one knows what the fuck it is, and its use still has few examples of actual implementation other than digital currency which is just the tip of the iceberg. Is bitcoin overbought right now? Probably. The recent drop from $5k would tell you that, and we will continue to see similar rise and falls in its future.
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口袋妖怪卡和无檐小便帽婴儿
I vision that one day all the currencies will be in the form of electronic, where the monetary economics collapses. Fiat currency will be worth its intrinsic value and where the potential of A.I will make our life's easier and cheaper. A debt based system will fail dramatically and everyone will move to cryptocurrencies. Just my speculation; please take no offense.
Anyways, I have an interesting question and would love to hear your view. Do you believe in free will or determinism or a combination of both?
我只是没有看到BTC当前密码或任何其他scaling up properly. Why would banks, other fin. institutions and large corporations give up one stream of collecting customer data? Also why would the government allow for a currency they can't control to become so widespread. I still believe that monetary policy needs to be regulated by a central body and I can't see BTC helping the cause. That being said, the technology is interesting and has a ton of practical applications. So maybe some new tech will come out that will give the best of both worlds.
比特币（“ BTC”）从根本上存在缺陷。定义货币的关键特征是集中化机构的支持。一个很好的例子就是美元。是的，美元是法定货币，但它保留了其价值，并用作公认的交换媒介，因为它得到了美国政府的支持。比特币不是。正如我在第二句话中所说的那样，比特币没有中央支持。我看到这种货币最终失败了。就像17世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫一样。就像比特币一样，当郁金香被介绍给欧洲时，人们将其视为下一个最好的事情。郁金香就像以前没有其他花一样，比特币也没有其他货币。 Soon enough a market was created for tulips and given the surge in profits, people wanted a share of the profits. Suddenly growers began to grow their own tulips, gave these tulips different names and sold them as fast as they could. Sounds familiar. The surge in profits of Bitcoin has given rise to new crytpocurrecneis with almost arbitrary names (LBRY, litecoin, Namecoin, Vericoin, Bitcrystals, Dash..). There is novalue或这些货币背后可信赖的机构。它类似于金字塔方案。那些在2009 - 2011年购买的人持有大量比特币，因为他们以这些高昂的价格兑现了。立即购买BTC，您要支付4000美元以上的价格，没有接受，没有价值，没有支持，没有稳定性，并且载有其他基本问题。就像荷兰郁金香一样，BTC达到的价格将达到人们不愿支付的价格。一旦达到这一点，加密货币市场就会丑陋。
More skeptical because of the ability to manipulate the currency.. great article on the medium about the big price jump in July and how the price movement was because of washtrading
It's definitely a bubble. Notice that 2 years ago when the price of bitcoin was only a few hundred dollars there was no massive circlejerk to buy bitcoin. The people that are purchasing bitcoin now are purely speculating. If bitcoin keeps going up, why bother buying it when you can hold it for profit?
The currency system we have now already works. Nobody complains about how hard it is to complete transactions online; we've had credit cards for decades that work fine.
Plus, there's no possible way the government would allow bitcoin to replace the currency they have. How could we control interest rates? You think the government would just give that up to a couple technology enthusiasts that got into cryptocurrency early? Shit would go way out of wack with a currency that deflates, as people wouldn't even bother investing or even spending money when the currency they hold increases in value. Just my 2c.
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