关于您今年如何分配奖金的任何想法？
The market feels overpriced right now, but assuming elevated inflation continues it seems irresponsible to hold a lot of cash. Would be curious if anyone is seeing any attractive opportunities in any particular funds or asset classes.
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Comments (73)
我在同一条船上。从我站着的地方，我打算错过任何剩下的收益，并保持现金。发生撞车事故，当发生时，我将开始寻找便宜货。FOMO已经花费了许多人的生命储蓄，因此自我策略可能是前进的最聪明的战略。我宁愿贬低我的现金，也不愿看到市场开始着火时燃烧。
为什么会发生撞车事故？
There's been a crash coming for 5 years just. Average in names your confident in or indexes, whatever floats your boat. We're mostly in our low 20s and can survive a 20-30% drawdown for a year.
What's behind every recession, at least to some extent? Widespread demand weakness. With supply chain issues and excessive liquidity supported by quantitative easing, we'll definitely continue seeing strong demand for the time being. But, and this is my humble opinion, quantitative easing is set to stop at some point next year. The economic impact will be far too great for the Fed to fully withdraw support, so they might keep it going for a while to avoid a selloff. However, we are all seeing the trade-offs of this monetary policy. The Fed might have to choose between tightening its policies or letting inflation run wild, and I genuinely think they'll be forced to choose the former despite the economic impact thereof.
With valuations as high as they are, any sign of raising rates and withdrawn support, will bring the market down. Investors won't risk the crazy gains they have amassed over the past year and will go running with their money without thinking about it twice. The current level of spending, to put it simply, is not sustainable in the long run. Maybe we'll see 1 or 2 more business cycles, but my best guess is that the last 2 quarters of 2023 will be very very ugly. But then again, what do I know? You can't perfectly time a market downturn, but you can get really close. Whatever marginal gains I could possible capture next year are not worth the risk of what's ahead.
because market reminds circus currently. look at Rivian (no sales and 3rd largest market cap in the world among automakers) and Lucid (similar). look at cryptos (blatant scam promoted by bots all over Internet with trillions in market cap - look at descriptions of these crypto "projects", they are laughably filled with buzzwords with 0 meaning, and people still put their hard-earned real money in there). meanwhile, there is a record number of people who just retired and will not be putting their money into market anymore and instead will be withdrawing.
Honestly the only smart play is all in on Metaverse/Gaming cryptos.
要买莱特币
所以我们都坚持现金RN吗？
Still allocating largely to public equities with some thematic focuses. Probably going to put a little bit in some floating rate debt that I can rotate out if rates increase (TBD how successful that will be since asset classes move increasingly in tandem). Maybe a little to a crypto basket, I like the value prop of the space overall but haven't been excited by any pitch for a given coin. We're in the market for a new fund right now, so I'll probably allocate a couple hundred there, but it'll amortize over the next few years and I get 50/50 leverage so only a small piece of it will come from current bonus.
Big tech + Crypto until it doesn't work
This is the way.
This. They're the only two things outperforming fiat debasement.
Exactly
yup big tech has worked for the last 20 yrs andMMbuyout multiples havereached 20xEBITDA。没有什么可以阻止技术以相同的速度继续！
Big tech is trading at reasonable multiples and they are monopolies. Don't overthink the room.
TQQQ
惊讶的一些答案。坐在cash and waiting because you think valuations are too high? Since when does that shit actually matter. Baffles me how some people continue to play it during one of the largest wealth transfers in history. This window won't always be open. Say what you want about risk. I'm nearing enough to exit the rat race legitimately. Sticking with TQQQ and Crypto particularly DAOs and DeFi.
Based
Ha thanks. Think you were the guy asking about Wonderland and Snowbank right? Hopefully you were able to get some, you'd be up nice rn unlike those guys in the thread trying to poke holes and overthink everything
Genuinely curious, why are the bankers on this side so risk-averse when it comes to investing? Feel like it's finance 101 to not try to time the market, and people in their early 20s can definitely survive a bear market if they just don't sell. Tens of thousands in bonus going to cash instead of equities sounds like a great way to never build actual wealth
People who feel like they are smart are in general are risk-averse because they feel the need to have to understand every little nuance before investing something. It's also a superiority thing maybe. As in "I don't have to be a degen a buy TQQQ or crypto" maybe something like that idk. I win either way.
Superiority complex and inability to adjust to current investing landscape. Vast majority of people here comes fromIBbackground = I work insanely hard, I'm well paid, anyone who does things differently is an idiot.
Times have changed. Tech exploded, crypto became a new asset class with pretty heavy use cases, plenty of coin speculation, plenty of average Joes making serious bucktradingmemes.
This pisses off people here.
Also worth noting that most banks have pretty annoying compliance policies-basically unable to invest in single name securities, have to pre-clear every purchase and sale, etc.
70-30 Gold and Equities, don't like current valuations but no point in being aimless on timing the market. Gold is a good inflation/recession hedge
Hahaha good one
Gold started the year at $1,898/oz and has traded flat all year to settle around $1,807/oz spot today. Think this argument is out dated, especially at a time when the fed is printing and buying 120bn of bonds per month withQE。If GLD didn't perform in this environment, when will it?
Solana
Array
YOOOO LFGGG. been balls deep in Solana for months
YOOOO LFGGG. been balls deep in Solana for months
As long as you plan on holding for at least ~10 years & can stomach a few bad years, your best bet is to just put in SPY / IVV and forget about it. While it is clearly not the most ideal valuation levels to invest, it is impossible to time the market and you could end up having several massive bull years before a crash, which would hurt the thesis of holding cash. Not trying to time the market will save you some stress and should result in 8-10% annualized as long as you hold for the long-haul
Trying my best to stick to a long term program and will probably sprinkle bonus into existing SMID cap mutual fund holdings. Then going to yeet remainder into crypto by just sizing up buy and hold positions (BTC, ETH, SOL, etc).
Also I want a digital race horse on zed.run like a true crayon eating degenerate.
VTWAX
QYLD for that juicy 11% yield.
is there a put equivalent
PUTW
(1) - Leveraged up as much as I can through mortgage. With the current interest rate and inflation, it's like free money from the bank as long as you have credit and good income. Try to partner with someone who knows real estate and you're just a LP.
(2) - All in on tech stocks through my retirement IRAs, it's down 40% YTD but idc. I have 40 more years to go before I even tap into the money.
(3) - 3 k美元租金收入,我生成being put into Alt coin recommended by my friends in tech to capture any short gains and move into ethers.
（4） - 根据我的小组负责人的建议，少量现金和EFR的其余部分。
(5) - Spent time investing in myself such as looking for higher pay jobs, better opportunity, time with family and health. (Health is probably the most important thing, because the potential yield on that will make the biggest impact on your life) It's also something that I need to work on.
This is gonna make some of the other commenters in this thread vomit lmao. Cause apparently the best way to build wealth is keeping your bonus in a savings account and losing it to 6% inflation
Still can't believe I read that on a FINANCE forum lmfao
而且它肯定高于6％，因为CP谎言被操纵以低估通货膨胀。与实际上涨相比，他们使用的等效租金与租金和住房价格的实际上涨相比直接从幻想土地上。然后，您可以通过替代效果和其他BS添加所有享乐主义质量调整和统计学家的手，这很明显，为什么它永远不会给予准确的图片。但是，是的，任何人现在都说现金，尤其是在金融和知道通货膨胀率在哪里的现金，这是一种障碍。
您将成为一个成功的人，从您的心态的方式来看
Luckily there is aCREsponsor in AZ with who I will be putting my bonus with as he is raising a new multifamily/ground-up fund. I have invested in his funds since 2017 and he continuously produces 30%+ IRRs. Lowest fees (1% acquisition fee, no management fee, 7-8% pref, typical waterfall) I have seen as well and he is always the top investor within the fund personally, so interests are aligned. The AZ market will continue to stay hot as it is severely underbuilt and I have read reports the current building supply wouldn't meet demand until ~2030.
只是养成平均索引的习惯。如果您想在一定程度上计时市场时，您可以在下跌时购买更多。99％的人（和其他地方）不知道他们在说什么，并且总会有人根据其ECON 101/wsj/cnbc/或其他任何错误的信息来源呼吁撞车。通常会错过多年的回报，要求发生坠机事故，然后当市场更正要么错过时，因为他们太害怕部署了，要么希望市场能够下跌更多并错过了恢复。甚至更糟糕的是，当他们最终获得5％的更正并告诉所有人“我告诉过你”时，那个家伙会错过50％的移动，但吹牛。破钟每天两次正确...
Frankly unless you're a macro investor, timing the market should be completely above your paygrade. Even then, look at how many famous macro investors have mistimed the market just looking at the last 2 years.
Soxl和加密
Emerita Resources, Nobel Resources.
Call it a day and quit your job in a couple years
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