Favourite industry to benefit from COVID long-term? (No TMT ideas, anything unusual)
Any contrarian ideas as to which industries have been significantly affected by the pandemic and will benefit long-term? The more unusual the better...
Nov 02, 2020
Nov 02, 2020
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Comments (4)
I made bets on Big Oil. The industry has experienced both supply and demand shocks in the past, but never at the same time! Crack spreads are terrible in the $9 range, refineries running at 70% capacity, 40+ producers in the Permian blown up, consolidation in full swing, democratic administration most likely coming, huge asset write-downs, hydrocarbon demand down 20%, flights down 70%, stranded assets, pipelines can't keep full, national stockpile over capacity, rediculously low Henry hub gas prices (now back a bit), negative WTI prices for a bit, political bickering with OPEC+, national oil companies bringing production back online flooding the market again, holy crap the list keeps going on and on. Extreme negative market sentiment going on with a new narrative that we've reached"peak oil". The entire industry is dogsh*t.
But...basiceconomics says thiswill naturally work itself out. After all, it is a commodity business. Baker Hughes rig count down dramatically.Capex cuts by50-60%. OPEX cuts are bringing down average lift costs per barrel. OPEC and Russia forced to the table. Analysts already warning of underinvestments needed for future demand. Credit to unprofitable producers have been cutoff. Small producers are being snapped up. Investments aregetting more due diligence.
If business goes from dogsh*t to simply bad, I'm going to do well. If business gets back to ok, I'll be able to retire.
REtail and grade A malls in particular have been hit right now and for obvious reasons...over the long-run, I expect them to thrive. Yes e-commerce will also grow but I wager that for many families particularly those located in sub-urban areas, going to malls or shopping with families is an "experience" / way to unwind that e-commerce will never be able to replicate...furthermore, for high quality and pricier objects, folks want to try out something / see it in person before committing to purchase and even if VR touches e-commerce from this aspect, still don't think it can supplant retail
房屋建筑商为新屋社区杀死it right now. In fact, I heard that new home sales have ledGDP growth nationallythis past quarter. We lend to developers and production HomeBuilders for large new home communities. I have been slammed with deals since October 2019.
Several of our clients told us May 2020 was their best month in the company's history. We have had to turn away a good number of deals actually. Mainly because our competitors stopped funding new home starts as soon as Covid hit and we were still taking new deals and units. We have been getting many deals that would normally go to our larger competitors for this reason. I think more people working from home due to Covid, low interest rates, and millennials starting families have all contributed to this boon. Examples of public HomeBuilders include DR Horton, NVR, and KHOV (which has reported losses for years but finally reportednet incomethis past quarter.)
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