岩石开始到重要的一周|每日剥皮|7/26/22

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市场快照

Markets couldn't figure out how they wanted to start the day on Monday, and markets had mixed results. WTI Crude closed up just north of 2%, and BTC dipped below 22k. ETH traded between 1500 and 1600 bucks, and the 10-yr yield remained below 3%.

At the closing bell, theNasdaqclosed lower, down0.44%。的S&Pand theDowwere up0.13%and0.28%, respectively.

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Banana Bits

  • 厌倦了加息了吗?投资者押注美联储实际上会cut rates in 2023
  • It might be a little bitprematureto count your chickens, Barclays chief of asset allocation says
  • A food fight betweenpublishers and librariansis the dramedy you didn't know you needed
  • 我们不能忘记乌克兰的战争,除了人为的战争成本外,还有一个economic tollon the troubled nation
  • Getting into a great business school could be the difference between a gig at Northwestern Mutual or Goldman, and the best way to boost your chances of success is witha solid GMAT score

Banana Brain Teaser

昨天- 使它不需要的人。购买它的人不使用它。使用它的人不知道他或她是。它是什么?

A coffin.

今天- It's 75 bananas off ourIB Interview Prep Course对于前15位受访者。LFG!

什么不能说话,但会回头说话?

向我们射击您的猜测[email protected]with the subject line "Banana Brain Teaser" or simplyclick here to reply!


Macro Monkey Says

Middle Class Woes- There's a great rant from Bernie Sanders on the cost of everyday life as someone who has a close to minimum wage job, lives in an urban area, and can't afford to move to somewhere with a lower cost of living. I recommend it – to me, it was eye-opening.

But it turns out that right now, it's tough to be in the middle class, as households with incomes in the 60th to 80th percentile in America are feeling the squeeze the most.

During the pandemic, thanks to enhanced unemployment benefits, stimmy checks, and being locked down in their homes, the working poor actually ended up saving money. For many households, these stimmy checks plus enhanced unemployment benefits actually paid more than their jobs.

将其与中产阶级形成对比;如果您在中产阶级失业,您的失业支票加上Stimmy检查就不会构成您丢失的理由。

的middle class spends more of their income on goods and services that have gone up in price. Think about the cost of commuting into a city from a suburb or rural area.

Driving 50 miles per day in traffic has more or less doubled in terms of cost if you're driving the same car as two years ago. If you were forced to upgrade, your new or even used car payment is higher than ever before.

根据穆迪(Moody)的分析,上层中产阶级定义为在大约75k至130k之间的家庭,实际上每个家庭的节省量和总收入较少,除了每年每年30k以下的家庭外,所有其他收入范围都要少。

Many of these upper-middle class families have 401ks and IRAs. These retirement accounts have been crushed this calendar year, giving back, in many cases, all of their pandemic gains.

Those close to retirement in the middle class are in a rough spot. Their retirement accounts are dwindling, and the cost of living in many parts of the country is absolutely skyrocketing.

This is such a problem that some retirees are returning to the workforce. If you retired in early 2020 and then saw your investment account balances go up almost triple-digit percentages after the March 2020 pullback, you were riding high.

Now, sentiment amongst the middle class has taken a harder hit than any other income bracket. The psychological burden of losing loads of money in stonks has forced many middle class boomers to pull a Bret Favre and re-enter the workforce.

没有人知道未来的情况。利率会上升多少?通货膨胀会仅通过需求破坏来遏制吗?爸爸Jpow会带我的工作吗?

Even if I had a crystal ball, I wouldn't share the answers with you.


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What's Ripe

世界摔跤娱乐($ WWE)- WWE received an upgrade today, sending shares soaring.

After Vince McMahon announced his retirement amid sexual misconduct allegations. Now, there is a good chance that the media brand is ripe for an acquisition. This is an interesting turn of events, and I'm sure there are many millennials out there who would love to turn this one into a meme stock.

$ WWE的股票攀登8.49%

I thought, as a wrestler, you want to go out on top. Sorry, Vince. Too soon?

Ryanair ($RYAAY)- Shares of the European budget airline popped yesterday after a strong quarterly earnings report. They still lost a little bit of money on the bottom line, but things are looking up.

的company is expecting to return to pre-C19 profitability sometime this year or early next year. However, their leadership dubbed their recovery as "fragile," mentioning that big price increases in oil or another geopolitical event could force their good news story off the tracks.

Shares of Ryanair closed up4.64%yesterday.


What's Rotten

Newmont Goldcorp ($NEM)- If you thought that gold mining stonks were an inflation hedge, maybe that hope was misguided.

$ NEM昨天报告了收益,底线缺失了近25%。

的gold miner's shares hit a new 52-week low, and at the end of the day, things were not pretty. Shares of $NEM declined by13.23%。

Weber Inc ($WEBR)- When it rains, it pours. That's what happened for Weber Inc this quarter.

Not only did the grill maker have a crappy quarter when it comes to sales, but their leadership also announced that their CEO is calling it quits. They're struggling to control costs and are considering layoffs and inventory management tactics to save a little bit of money.

Shares of $WEBR cratered Monday, closing down12.65%


Thought Banana

Did You Get the Memo?- 用里克·詹姆斯(Rick James)的话说,便宜的钱是一种毒品的地狱,这就是为什么在整个西方世界上,中央银行家在鞋子上脱颖而出的原因,因为他们在不压碎任何经济活动的情况下可以加快速度的速度。

Even ze Germans are getting on board with buying troubled debt from struggling southern European economies a la American bailouts in the early days of the Great Recession.

我们将听到from Daddy JPow later this week, and we might see another outsized rate hike from the Fed following their FOMC meeting.

似乎许多经济体在不稳定,不可预测的宏观环境中努力打击通货膨胀和适当的货币政策。

这都是这样说的,我不确定俄罗斯和中国是否得到了备忘录。在这个世界试图重建多极秩序的世界中,中国人坚持他们相当宽松的货币政策。

的ir central bankers are quoted barking sentiments such as domestic markets drive Chinese monetary policy and that liquidity in China is better than it needs to be in today's macroeconomic environment.

的n you have the Russians. As we watch them execute their grand strategy running a move out of their regional destabilization playbook in Ukraine, their central bank is actually chopping rates.

这种有意义;如果您是乌克兰战争之前的能源以外的任何出口商,那么在乌克兰战争之后,您可能无法出口。除了在欧洲的能源方面,世界与俄罗斯经济团结起来。

的Russians are actually considering further rate cuts. Their economy is going to contract this year significantly, as raw material imports are another challenge, and the foreign investment well has gone more or less dry.

说到削减税率,一些投资者实际上是在押注Daddy Jpow将在2023年砍掉利率,以挽救我们免于衰退。

I've said this before: this is a dumb strategy. It's like drinking ten shots at the bar and jumping into your car to drive home to make sure you're off the road before the booze hits ya.

的interest rates derivatives market is showing that this hunch is actually more than just a little bit common. This type of move would be something that previously would have been considered impossible, but today investors are betting on the return of cheap money at the end of 2023.


Wise Investor Says

"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing."- 菲利普·费舍尔(Phillip Fisher)



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