理论：乌克兰入侵北约低估俄罗斯军队的手段吗？
I have heard rumours that Russia has only been sending a token force of young conscripts from puppet states into Ukraine (as little as 40k), while keeping the hardened main infantry core in reserves (~800k).
Is this seemingly disastrous conventional invasion in Ukraine a ploy for NATO to get overconfident and attempt some sort of conflict with the seemingly incompetent and corrupt Russian forces? Because those rumours of Russia holding back their main forces have been confirmed (or at least not debunked, even with satellite feeds and intelligence agents on the ground).
我认为这些象牙塔内的Kremlin have willingly sacrificed a measly ~5k conscripts from puppet states and some outdated vehicles or vehicles that have fallen into repair to get the rest of the world to mock and underestimate them. Because seemingly overnight, the average person's perception of Russia has shifted from being an invincible war machine capable of taking on any military in the world save for China and the US, into a bunch of green, wet-behind-the-years young bucks with low morale.
评论 （21)
I personally would've guessed the opposite tbh. But hard to decipher the truth these days. Its either some establishment propagandaBS, or literal Russian troll farms being the source of news
Huh? So you think Russia's currently reclaiming of their rightful territories in Ukraine was a display of military competency and might?
否 - 我认为普通人认为俄罗斯军队在很大程度上很虚弱和过时
Really? You haven't been seeing any of the "paper tiger" propaganda that the military-industrial complex uses to justify their exorbiant spending? Things like "Former Soviet Union developing invincible next-generation tanks", "Russia deploying supersoldiers in mechanized suits to Iraq", "New Russian ICBM will render the Iron Dome obsolete", "Prototype Russian destroyer has $7 billion railgun"
Man what are you even talking about lol
Don't know why I bothered with another political/geopolitical post
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Learn morePutin built a billion dollar mansion with money that was supposed to be for building hospitals.... and in a couple years the place got overran by mold and had to be rebuilt. That's the kind of guy we're dealing with here.
The man is so deep in corruption and incompetence that anything he touches falls apart.
Source: trust me beo
It's real, a businessman who was building hospitals realized all his money was getting taken to build a mansion and defected... and then the photos came out.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56007943
我不知道，谁知道发生了什么。我个人认为普京低估了乌克兰。另外，如果他想让乌克兰在北约和莫斯科之间充当缓冲，那么他就退缩了，比他尽可能地将其作为伤亡，否则他只会造成更多的敌人。他可能不得不开始变得更加积极进取，因为乌克兰不会屈服，而俄罗斯人民也不是为了这场战争。迅速结束这场战争符合普京的最大利益，但是如果发生谈判或何时进行谈判，乌克兰的杠杆作用越长。
您说的是一个在曲棍球比赛中得分没有问题并庆祝8个进球的人，而几乎无法滑冰。您认为他足够安全，可以让整个世界认为他的军事能力很糟糕，是一个长期的骗局？
Ah yes, the old strategy of looking weak so the opponent that you cannot beat underestimates you and actually feels inclined to start a conflict that you, again, cannot win. Must be it
Not sure by what you mean "Russia can't win". Russia can stomp any 2 NATO members combined (except involving the US) in a conventional battle anywhere near its regional power projection capabilities. Yes, even against the UK and France combined.
Russia can also absolutely gobsmack the US on Russian soil. If this seemingly disastrous Ukrainian invasion encourages Washington, Whitehall or Brussels to do any military operations near Russia, they'll be met with defeat.
因此，俄罗斯不能从乌克兰（苏联时代过时的苏维埃时代的设备上花费了50亿美元的预算）（预算为50亿美元），俄罗斯不能占据200英里外的（基辅）（基辅）（区域电力投影能力），但它可以踩到两个以上3,000英里的国家 /地区之外在尖端西部设备上花费了约1300亿美元的总预算。
Strongly doubt it.
Militaries are no different from any other government bureaucracy: senior staff are often half-assed lifers who have zero chance of being fired or demoted no matter how badly they fuck up, decision-making is heavily skewed towards either inertia or conservatism (nobody wants to rock the boat), red tape and internal politics pretty much destroy any personal initiative. I highly, highly recommend you watch the miniseriesGeneration Kill为了了解即使是美军的日常运营程度管理程度。
Now apply all these weaknesses to a country with extreme institutional deficiencies, like Russia. I have personal ties to the country and have so many anecdotes of how the culture of corruption affects everyday life (people paying money to bump up their GPAs, someone's brother essentially buying a promotion in the police). You can almost guarantee that a large portion, if not the majority of military leadership at all levels aren't there on merit at all. There's also evidence of maintenance deficiencies in a lot of their heavy equipment, indicating a lot of money/spare parts etc was probably stolen, which wouldn't surprise anyone. Even though the event took place over 20 years ago, I highly recommend you read死亡的时间by Robert Moore, about the K-141 Kursk submarine disaster in 2000. Really rammed home how institutional failures on every level led to a completely preventable military tragedy.
Combine that level of rot within their military with a completely flawed plan at a strategic level - Putin, scarily, seemed to believe his own propaganda that Ukrainians would embrace the Russian forces as liberators - and it's not hard to see how this has turned into such an embarrassment. The Winter War of 1939-40 is pretty illustrative, with the Russians facing the same issues against a - on paper - vastly inferior enemy. Unfortunately for the Ukranians, as in 1940, I think the sheer fear of the consequences of failure will force the Russian senior military leadership to get their shit together eventually and achieve their conventional objectives.
同意您的看法 - 我读得越多，如果他的目标纯粹是要夺走基辅并推翻政府，那么普京似乎就越眨眨眼而眨眼。我敢肯定，拥有更多军事经验的人可以更好地谈论这一方面。
Maybe Putin is playing 5d chess - stumble, swallow his pride, embarrass himself/mother Russia - all to unleash some massive shock force to take over the whole eastern bloc. I don't think that's the case though or maybe I'm just being optimistic.
That seems like exactly what is going on. He's baiting NATO to stage a large enough military operation after they see all the "low morale" troops, "conscripted youngsters", "rusted and leaking vehicles" and "defecting soldiers", then he'll crush whatever NATO lands on Russian shores, then blitzkrieg Eastern Europe while a divided NATO scrambles around trying to politically recover from the worst failed invasion since Barbarossa.
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