Blowdown scenario modelling -- O&G
How would one go about modelling this based onpublic filings对于一个拥有约100口井的单物资产生产商,每个人都没有公众的细节?我所知道的(或者至少,我所知道的)是当前的整体公司下降速度,也是任何新钻孔良好的下降率的总体想法。
Note I am not an O&G guy.
How would one go about modelling this based onpublic filings对于一个拥有约100口井的单物资产生产商,每个人都没有公众的细节?我所知道的(或者至少,我所知道的)是当前的整体公司下降速度,也是任何新钻孔良好的下降率的总体想法。
Note I am not an O&G guy.
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评论 (8)
Bump?
I don't know if you need a type curve for this but see if you can get access to HPDI or a similar service that can you give you historical production for operators in the area.
我能够建立一个符合公司估算的个人井类型曲线equity research和投资者演讲;但是,我不知道在哪个生产阶段有多少井。还是我应该将整个公司视为一个井(例如,如果我知道明年的公司下降是40pct,而典型的个人井则是40/20/15/10,那么我将型号2年级的公司下降20pct,然后是15岁,ETC...)
That might be the best way if you have no other information. I think mgmt would be the only ones to know that kind of granularity
@rufiolove ? you're an O&G guy, right?
我通常认为,如果没有公共或长期单一的井数据,则根据钻井时间表和类型曲线,根据钻井时间表和类型曲线将公司的现有生产视为一种井和未来的生产。
是的,正如@Nabooru提到的,你可以把了r the PDP decline rate and apply that to existing PDP production. For future development (i.e. PUD locations and Probable / Possible locations) you would want to get as granular as possible, using multiple type curves if necessary based on variance in geology, geography, any basin level detail you would have. This would allow you to construct a production waterfall. If you wanted to do a全面排列的导航, you would just need to run out all wells通过他们的经济生活。
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