Long-term impact of the coronavirus
There has been multiple threads about the virus itself and the proper response to it. I want to start this thread to begin a discussion of the long-term impact across multiple dimensions: political, cultural, social, economic, business.
这是我的一些预测：
-Decoupling from China will accelerate significantly. Americans will become more anti-China and anti-immigration and far more skeptical of globalism and multinational organizations. The U.S. will be the most isolationist it has ever been since the 1920s.
——政党将日益成为populist. The 2020s will be the decade of fervent populism, a reaction against the elites. Goldwater-Reagan conservatism will be dead within the GOP, replaced by a conservative nationalism that calls for more government interventions on behalf of workers, skepticism of "free" trade deals, and reduction of immigration. The Democrats will be a de fact socialist party in which the ideas of Bernie will be the ideological standard.
-Telecommuting will be far more common and become a "normal" aspect of white collar jobs. Videoconferencing platforms such as Zoom will skyrocket in value.
-Colleges will lose their value. Parents who lost their savings in the stock market and lost their jobs will wonder what value their kids are getting from these colleges, as they turn to online courses. The top schools will be fine, but the lower tier ones will get crushed. Many will shut down.
-The maturation and commercial viability of VR andar会加速。即使病毒结束了，在家娱乐活动也将成为周末的标准部分，酒吧和夜总会工业也被粉碎了。由于这种趋势，Facebook和其他技术人员等公司将增加在生产可行的娱乐VR和arplatforms.
-Further decline in birth rates as people question the wisdom of bringing kids into this environment. The U.S. birth rate is already low, and I think this will get worse.
- 从门票销售到大型体育赛事，音乐会和电影院的收入下降。电子竞技将变得巨大。在20年内，顶级游戏玩家将以类似于布雷迪和勒布朗的方式成为家喻户晓的名字。
Comments (25）
人们不会停止去酒吧。我知道每个人是否由于周末呆在周末的无聊而失去理智。
Gamers being household names? I don't even know what to say to that.
I would have ridiculed it myself in the past, but not anymore.
An interesting event happened a few days ago. Since NASCAR cancelled their upcoming events like the other sports, a lot of the top pro drivers (including recently-retired Dale Earnhardt Jr.) did a virtual sim race online. Apparently the high-end video game racing simulators have gotten so good that driving them is actually pretty similar to real stock car driving. And there's an eNascar pro league with virtual races at virtual versions of the famous tracks. It has its own press coverage, sponsorships, fans, and prize money. I had never heard of any of this until just now.
Here's the video of the race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSY47yUrHRs
I'm not much of a NASCAR fan, but I've watched it on TV casually. To my untrained eyes, this is about as entertaining as watching an actual race on TV. And the quality will only get better over time.
福克斯新闻报道的活动：
https://www.foxnews.com/auto/josh-williams-nascar-iracing-replacements-coronavirus
未来将是漂亮的我们ird...kind of like the Matrix, except that we plug ourselves in voluntarily.
And to add to that, teenagers play an insane amount of video games. They don't play outside like we used to when we were their age. They basically live online.
I'm guessing most of the 30+ people have not heard of a guy who goes by the name, "Ninja." I didn't know who he was until recently. He is one of the world's best "Fortnite" players and makes seven figures from playing and streaming it. The guy is a legit celebrity with the younger crowd. In 20 years, it e-sports will be absolutely YUGE.
由于担心患病，远程医疗将变得越来越受欢迎，因为人们将更加专注于管理正在进行的住院能力，而患者不愿去诊所/医院。
Grocery pickup will become the standard, as people realize they wasted hours of their lives shopping down aisles in an inefficient manner. Certain grocery stores will convert into a warehouse/pickup-only and save money on displays, marketing, personnel etc. which will allow them to get food to consumers even cheaper.
“我不知道如何向您解释您应该关心其他人。”
Long Ocado
Do you know if they'll be entering the US market any time soon? I remember reading they have a partnership of some kind with Kroger
Quant（（ˈkwänt)n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.
好点子
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I'll take the other side of all of these, other than the first 2. People forget easily. In a few years, this will be a distant memory, and in 50 years when the next pandemic comes, we will be similarly unprepared.
什么都不会改变。人们继续前进。
Another one:
-People will stop paying exbortitant prices for shit like iPhones (1000+) realizing their one month away from becoming homeless
Nope. So many idiots out there would rather be homeless than give up the latest iPhone. Those IG selfies ain't gonna take themselves.
I disagree. The dems have already rejected Bernie's ideas in the primaries. Most democrats do not want socialism.
伯尼因为他是一个可怕的候选人而迷失了方向，而且选民认为他不能击败特朗普。但是伯尼的政策在民主基础上很受欢迎。如果特朗普赢得连任，DEMS将在2024年提名社会主义者。
Exactly. His campaign has caused Joe, who was otherwise a more centrist politician before, to adopt a more leftist platform in general, especially considering that in order to get the nomination he has to get Bernie voters to vote for him instead.
人们广泛的记录是，双方都变得越来越多地党派和两极分化，因此，越来越多的社会主义候选人将被民主党人（以及共和党人进一步赋予权利的候选人），这并不是可能的可能性。这种两极分化也从国家政治传播到州和市政层面，并且很可能只会在将来加剧。
Quant（（ˈkwänt)n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.
Every poll indicated that he could beat Trump and he finished 2nd in a field of 29 dems. In sports, if you finish 2nd out of 29, you made it to the championship series.
请记住，伯尼（Bernie）迷失了方向，因为大多数选民（实际上投票的人，不仅是投票年龄的人）是古老的，而且越来越多的进步观点。He won the majority of the young adult/millennial vote, and I don't see those people changing their views any time soon. As the older voters die out, the young views become the majority. Bernie might be out of the game by then, but the ideas surely won't.
这证明了我们的教育体系有多糟糕，年轻人拥护社会主义。纳粹德国和大屠杀的恐怖在中学中得到了很好的教导，许多电影探讨了这个话题。但是，关于共产主义中国和苏联的恐怖的教导并不多。那是一场悲剧。学生应该了解斯大林的古拉格斯，毛泽东的伟大飞跃和文化大革命，古巴的卡斯特罗政权等。
I see your usual talking point buts no mention of healthcarepharma and paid leave being a major linchpin as far as policy if this thing becomes widespread. Why is that? Is it that you chose to reaffirm your usual talking points (ie immigration)?
In my opinion, it's far more likely that universal healthcare and government mandated paid leave gets another push/eventually passed as a result of this than it is we turn back the clock to the 1920s and become isolationists. We are in aglobal economy现在和我认为Covid-19不会改变这种情况。
Americans were already resentful of China and that won't change, but we will keep on buying their goods, providing student visas to their citizens, and engaging in trade with them. That's just the reality.
And I actually think it'll be the exact opposite of your assertion regarding bars/nightclubs. This amount of isolation will have people desperate to be social and I believe restaurants/bars/clubs will be extremely busy once this thing subsides.
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