Brexit

Brexit is an acronym for two English words: 'Britain' and 'exit,' and it alludes to the United Kingdom's (UK) withdrawal from theEuropean Union（欧洲联盟）。

英国exiting the European Union was a drastic step from the point of view of international经济学. It was a long-due discussion, but it was delayed due to several circumstances.

But finally, on 1st Feb 2020, the decision was made, and Britain exited the EU after a long association with the body.

英国和欧盟于2020年12月24日签署了一项临时自由贸易协定，以确保双方可以在没有关税或限制的情况下交易产品。

However, major aspects of the future relationship, such as trade in services, which accounts for 80% of the UKeconomy, remain unclear. This averted a "no-deal" Brexit, which would have been disastrous for the British economy.

On 1st Jan 2021, the UK parliament accepted a preliminary agreement.4月28日2021, the European Parliament approved it. However, while the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) permits tariff- and quota-free trade in products, U.K.-EU trade is still subject to customs checks, implying that trade is not as seamless as when the UK was a member of the EU.

这history behind

In 1951, European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was founded with 6 significant members, France, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

英国was invited, but it declined since it focused more on the economic ties with the imperial countries in the Commonwealth.

1960年，英国加入了一个被称为欧洲自由贸易协会（EFTA）的对手机构，该机构helped remove trade barriers与EEC(欧洲经济共同体),但Britain had the option of choosing the EEC or being with the EFTA.

它s economy was not doing so well, and there was a fear of being left behind since the countries under EEC were thriving and progressing. So, in 1961, British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan applied for the membership, which was vetoed by the French President, Charles De Gaulle, in 1963 due to several reasons:

• 这French and US relations were weak during the 1960s, and the French were afraid that upon entry of Britain (since Britain had a good relationship with the US) will affect the way the EEC works.
• 这entry of Britain led to weaker ties with the British Commonwealth, which De Gaulle thought was a vital part of containing communism.

同样,1967年,Britain applied for membership, which French President Charles De Gaulle again vetoed because the British pound was too unstable, and Britain needed to devalue it before entering the EEC.

这year 1972 saw Britain finally entering the EEC. This time it was a result of the collective effort of multiple countries. A few years later, Britain also took an important decision regarding continuing its EEC membership.

In 1993, the EEC became what we know today as the European Union (EU).

What is the European Union (EU) and what does it do?

这Organization of European Countries (OECD）成立于1993年，以监视欧洲国家的经济和政治融合。这Maastricht Treatyestablished it, and all members of the European Community (EC), from which the EU sprang, ratified the same.

这successful EC had made its members more amenable to increased integration. Moreover, it offered a framework for member nations to act in concert on security and foreign policy issues and cooperate in police and justice affairs.

这European Union (EU)is a 27-country economic and political union in the present day. The EU is one of the world's most powerful economic bodies and supports democratic principles.

欧元是官方currency of nineteen国家。

• 这mainaimof the formulation of this Union was to promote peace and harmony and create a single currency (Euro) all over Europe.
• 最初，有12个国家是欧盟的一部分。但是，到2013年，其他几个欧洲国家的加入将总共达到了28个国家。
• 在二十一世纪初期，欧盟扩大了从中欧和东欧的众多国家。
• 这European Community, the Council of Ministers (a forum for individual ministries), the European Commission (a bureaucracy), the European Parliament, the European Court of Justice, and theEuropean Central Bankare the EU's main institutions.
• 这EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.

How did it affect the UK?

这re is also a study on how the relationship between the UK and the EU will be affected after Brexit. The report studies the long-term effect on the UK economy (till 2030).

Many reports have stated that it will leave the UK under the impression of having new trade barriers with different countries, which will lead to deteriorated trade in the UK economy.

But there are also some reports which showcase how it will leave the UK economy to boost the national income by larger than 4% in the coming 15 years if simultaneously it also adopts completely free trade.

相反，一些研究报告显示，英国退欧如何增加英国的国民收入。

According to one research, the referendum outcome increased UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in 2017, costing the typical British household £404 per year. In addition, the outcomes of theBrexit全民公决将英国国家收入分别降低了0.6％和1.3％。

Analysts say that the withdrawal's uncertainty lowered company investment by 6 percentage points and resulted in a 1.5 percentage point loss in employment.

从2016年6月开始，关于英国未来贸易政策的提款引起的不确定性减少了英国海外商业。

在过渡期结束时，欧盟和英国之间进行了贸易协议。它解决了维护英国与欧盟之间的贸易的几个问题，英国是英国的重要贸易伙伴，但没有提供与欧盟成员相同的利益来消除官僚主义和促进贸易。

Benefits to Britain under the EU

欧盟为英国提供了一定的明显优势。让我们讨论其中的一些，以了解英国在离开欧盟后的含义。

• Free trade policy– No tariffs and free trade were some of the many advantages available to the EU members. The problem ofimports and exportswas less since all countries acted as one union and helped each other grow.
• One currency- 欧盟主要集中于拥有一种货币，然后是所有国家，以减轻汇率的麻烦并拥有流体贸易。
• 工作机会– EU uplifted the restrictions related to work opportunities. The citizens of the EU are free to travel and work anywhere in any of the member nations.
• Free mobility– there is free mobility of capital and labor across the EU. This helped the labor of one country to work in another and earn good wages.
• Security– the nations under the EU have a sense of security and unity amongst themselves to protect them from the threats of other nations. Increased international peace often results in economic prosperity for such countries. Drawbacks to Britain under the EU:

英国's decision to withdraw from the EU was partly because of some of the drawbacks mentioned below :

• High Fee– EU charged a high amount of fees to Britain for being a part of the union, and Britain realized that the advantage derived from being a member was relatively less.
• 移民问题- 2015年看到了臭名昭著的难民危机，这导致许多难民迁移到欧洲国家，尤其是英国。英国尚不清​​楚他们能够为这些移民提供的工作机会，因为他们必须迎合他们的人民。

Even though the UK did not see a major job-market crisis because of this event, the people of the UK were vocal in raising their concerns regarding the same.

• 决策- 欧盟在其成员国方面经常命令至高无上的经济力量。对于英国来说，这变得有问题，因为他们想对经济拥有充分的权力。

英国脱欧对英国经济的影响

它was also a major event in the history of the UK. The chain of events is expected to slow down the economy as trade will dry up, at least in short to medium term.

However, according to several research organizations, the UK economy might pick up the pace if it follows a well-structured import-substitution policy. This could help the UK soften the blow of dampened trade relations.

这effect on the UK economy has also been analyzed by using the Center for Business Research (CBR) macroeconomic model in which two different scenarios are taken –

1. Milder scenario
2. Severe scenario

If (1) is taken, there is a comparatively lesser permanent损失GDP(around 1%) till 2025. The GDP per capita will most likely remain unchanged with higher inflation and abetter job market.

If scenario (2) is taken, then the permanent loss of GDP is severe (around 4% of GDP), and there is also a significant impact on the GDP per capita, which may dip by 2.5-3%. Along with both inflation and unemployment may rise.

Post - effect on the UK after 2020

英国 - 欧盟的关系最近还没有达到最佳状态，尤其是自2020年冠状病毒出现以来。因此，让我们看一下有关这一方面的最新发展。

• 英国与欧盟之间的关系受到严重危险。由于英国的决定，英国与非洲大陆之间的新边界和移民程序破坏了商业和劳动力供应。
• Due to new border procedures andred tape, the UK's exit from the EU's Single Market andCustoms Union has causedsignificant commercial disruption, notably for UK exports to the EU. It's been difficult to tell the difference between the impact of withdrawal on shortages and the coronavirus outbreak at times.
• 伦敦和布鲁塞尔已经在几个主题上进行了斗争，包括外交代表，冠状病毒疫苗的出口，以及最重要的是，北爱尔兰的新安排，在那里，关于离婚协议规定规定的关于离婚协议的辩论后谈判仍在进行中。
• 在2021年选举中赢得了大部分席位之后，分离主义政党呼吁举行另一个独立公投，在苏格兰升级后的紧张局势升级。

Looking at the different categories of how Brexit will impact the UK economy, we may see it as:

1. Fishing Sector:政府承诺采取了重大措施，以帮助企业重新控制英国水域并增加配额股份，但现实却大不相同。尽管官方声称这将导致英国渔民增加数十万吨的额外捕获，但分析发现，到2025年，每年的增加仅为107,000吨，所有物种的价值均为12.4％。
2. Aerospace Sector:诸如航空航天之类的高级部门将受到严重打击。由于经济的recession dueto Britain leaving the EU and may lower government investment in the defense industry, harming the aerospace industries.
3. 就业：这UK job market will also take a hit. There are few sectors in which the losses of jobs are likely, and some sectors will also see a mild boost in their employment levels. A study by the University of Leuven has predicted that job losses in the UK could be around 140,000 for a soft impact and 526,000 for a complex impact model.
4. Businesses:Around 1 out of 5 businesses are considering moving or relocating their business outside the UK.
5. 公共财政：这UK's public finances will benefit from this as it no longer has to pay the fees for the EU. This will help the UK save on its current payments to the EU budget. In addition, it will strengthen the UK's public finances by around £8 billion a year just by cutting the fees given to the EU.
6. Foreign Direct Investment(FDI):从短期来看，不确定性的增加以及外国直接投资和贸易长期的下降将削弱该国的投资者情绪。
7. 移民：Examining the recent trends and developments, there is still a strong connection between the EU migrants in the UK and the UK citizens residing in the EU. It will surely have a massive impact on migration, and these uncertainties are dependent on the UK's future.
8. Labor supply:With the implementation of this strategy, the shortage of unskilled labor workers in the UK will increase.

FAQ

• What is theBrexitissue?

这是英国（英国）于2020年1月31日退出欧盟（EU）。英国是唯一离开欧盟的主权国家。

• When did Britain join the EU?

这European Communities Act 1972 was passed by Parliament on 17th Oct, and the UK's instrument of ratification was placed the next day (18th), allowing the UK to join the EEC on 1st Jan 1973.

• How can it affect businesses?

拥有欧洲大陆供应商或消费者的企业将受到损害。同时，与非欧盟国家的贸易将受到失去欧盟目前的自由贸易协定和任何习俗延误的机会的阻碍。

• 它如何影响客户？

Travelers will suffer as a result of higher prices and fewer routes available. In addition, uncertainty over nation entry at airports and ports, combined with a new set of border restrictions, might generate delays for travelers passing through customs.

• How did it affect retail inflation?

这expense of importing even essential supplies like fresh meat, milk, eggs, and vegetables would cost merchants more, resulting in substantial price increases in supermarkets.

• Can EU citizens work in the UK after Brexit?

Yes, EU people can work in the United Kingdom, but they must apply through theSkilled Worker Visaor the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS).

• 戒断如何影响其他国家？

Higher tariffs and other non-tariff trade obstacles will hurt the least-developed nations, especially if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement.

• How did the withdrawal affect Europe?

随着一个具有重大全球意义的国家的离开，欧盟损失了其经济权力的六分之一，其外国和安全政策权重的比例明显更高。

Researched and authored by Ankit Sinha |LinkedIn

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