可比较的公司分析

A comparable company analysis is a financial modeling technique used by many individuals in finance to decide the market value of a company.

对公司的估值对于大多数前台职位非常重要，包括投资银行，私募股权，资产管理以及销售与交易。万博app网页版

Typically you can expect the analysts or associates to be responsible for carrying out the analysis, and its execution must be meticulous and flawless because it will have major implications on the transaction that the team is working on.

补充分析is one of 3 main financial modeling techniques, with the other 2 valuation techniques being thediscounted cash flow modeland the先例事务安娜lysis.

然而,一个方面at makes the comparable company analysis stand out is that it takes on a relative valuation approach by comparing the target to similar companies within the industry.

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In contrast to a fundamental valuation approach, the comps analysis does not attempt to establish an intrinsic value of the target. Rather, the comps analysis focuses on similar companies (hence the name comparable).

The logic is not difficult to grasp - customers wouldn't buy food from Burger King if the prices of its burgers are unreasonably higher than Mcdonald's burgers because both fine establishments pretty much serve the same type of food.

Why would customers willingly buy overpriced food?

This line of reasoning is also applied to the comps analysis. Clearly, many companies sell similar products, target the same customer demographics, and possess identical assets.

从投资者的角度来看，这些公司应该在相同的倍数周围进行交易，因为它们的运营从根本上是相同的。这正是合理的组合分析。

那么，什么是典型的可比较公司分析过程？这是：

1. 确定与目标相似的企业。
2. Extract specific financial information from the comparable businesses' financial statements (e.g., EBITDA, market capitalization, net debt, etc.)
3. 计算可比公司的估值倍数，例如P/E比率或EV/EBITDA比率
4. Calculate the average valuation multiple of the comparable companies, such as the average P/E
5. 将目标的财务信息（净收入，EBITDA等）与计算出的平均估值倍数相乘，以确定目标的价值，这通常是市值或企业价值。

这似乎很简单，但是在实践中执行COMPS分析时，有许多因素需要考虑。首先，在评估目标时，所选的可比较必须与目标尽可能相似。

一些一般分类将包括行业，地理位置或规模。尽管如此，您会惊讶于确定目标在利基领域运行时的比较非常困难。

Nevertheless, many software that investment banks use (Bloomberg Terminal, Factset, Capital IQ) will have a function that generates a list of comparable companies. So that would be an excellent place to start filtering your list.

因为类似的公司使用估值倍数mpanies should trade around the same values proportionate to their earnings (or some other factor such as revenue).

假设苹果和三星的净收入或EBITDA都应该具有相同的价值，这是不合理的。

Furthermore, it wouldn't be wise to rely on only one comparable to value the target because that would be too much dependency on the comparable. That's specifically why an average of numerous comparables are used instead.

Example of the comps analysis

As usual, it is always easier to understand when given an example. Therefore let's try and run a simplified example of this analysis.

Let's say you work at a fictitious soft drink company, Apes Beverages, and your company sells a soft drink called Gorilla Gulp that is sold all across the United States.

The drink has been a significant success since it was introduced 10 years ago, and Apes Beverages is looking to expand to the next level.

They need capital to open another factory to increase supply while simultaneously increasing margins and lowering variable costs through exploiting economies of scale.

The CFO has decided that Apes Beverages is ready to go public via IPO and needs your help in deciding the company's value. He tells you to run a comps analysis and get back to him, or you're fired by the end of the day.

You personally drink 5 cans of Gorilla Gulp a day, and you want this IPO to be a success. You're also not afraid because you've mastered the comps analysis after going through Wall Street Oasis's financial modeling精英建模包. The analysis will look something like this:

补充分析

	Financial Metrics		Valuation Metrics					倍数
Comparable	2020 EBITDA （$ m）	2021 EBITDA （$ m）	股份发行 （M）	分享价格 ($)	权益价值 （$ m）	Net Debt （$ m）	企业价值 （$ m）	EV/ EBITDA 2020 (x)	EV/EBITDA 2021 (x)
The Coca-Cola Company	10,870	12,150	4,330	61.53	266,425	44,240	310,665	28.58	25.57
PepsiCo Inc.	12,960	14,160	1,380	165.10	227,838	42,370	270,208	20.85	19.08
Monster Beverage Corp	1,690	1,860	529.36	79.16	41,904	22.38	41,927	24.81	22.54
Keurig Dr Pepper Corp	3,280	3,580	1,420	37.68	53,506	13,411	66917年	20.40	18.69
Average Multiple								23.66	21.47

Discussions of comparable company analysis

The comps analysis is an extremely helpful valuation technique because it uses readily available public information.

The logic behind the comparable company analysis is also very sound. A key benefit is that it infuses reality into the analysis because it uses actual figures driven by underlying market sentiments.

该模型不是过于理论的，唯一也可以接受的假设是，本质上相似的公司应该以相似的倍数进行交易。

However, there are some caveats to the comps analysis. Because the model relies on the value of other companies to drive the analysis, there is some dependency on the market. Therefore, if markets are not efficient, the target won't be fairly valued.

In fact, the comps analysis would be wildly inaccurate if the data used were during periods of boom or recessions because many would argue that prices are unreflective of fair value during those periods.

Another note is volatility. Every day, share prices are changing, which results in a fluctuating market capitalization which leads to a non-fixed valuation multiple, making it difficult to decide which exact point in time most accurately reflects the true P/E of a comparable.

一个常见的情况是，当分析师为演示文稿准备了可比的公司分析时。但是，会议被推迟到下周，分析师将被迫在下一周更新Comps表。

最后，使用诸如上面示例中的估值倍数的缺点是这些数字是历史的。许多人认为市场看起来前景，价格不在现有收益上进行交易，而是市场认为未来的收益。

Therefore, many analysts sometimes prefer using forward multiples such as forward P/E ratios that utilize estimated future earnings or even blended forward P/E, which incorporates historical and future estimated earnings.

可比较的公司分析与折现现金流模型
The discounted cash flow model (DCF) uses a fundamental approach where the target's future free cash flow is estimated and subsequently discounted back into the present value to determine the target's intrinsic value.

Therefore this makes the DCF follow an entirely different methodology from the relative valuation approach that the comps analysis uses.

For the comps analysis, it's an apples-to-apples comparison. Fundamentally similar companies should be sold for the same price.

It is worth noting that the comps analysis doesNOTattempt to determine what that fundamental value is, but rather it takes the market price of comparables and applies it to the target.

It is possible that the market price does not reflect the true value of the firms, but what it does reflect is the price that investors are willing to pay. From a practical standpoint, some might consider that much more important.

哪种估值方法是哪种？这是不可能说的，因为两者都有他们的利弊。但是，许多人会批评折扣现金流模型过于理论上的折扣，这是依靠许多有时可能不现实的假设。

In practice, no analyst has ever been able to accurately forecast a company's market capitalization using a discounted cash flow model.

The comps analysis does have its limitations as well. Finding similar companies to the target is not as simple as it may sound. Businesses are complex institutions with different organizational structures, revenue streams, standard operating procedures, etc.

当行业变得非常利基时，找到与目标的比较并不容易。

In reality, analysts are likely to be carrying out both the discounted cash flow model and the comparable company analysis because financial modeling can only go so far.

这些评估技术更适合作为公司估计价值而不是其典型价值的基准和指南。

Comparable company analysis vs. precedent transactions analysis

Many people consider the precedent transaction analysis a subset of the comparable company analysis. In fact, the precedent transaction analysis also uses a relative valuation approach.

What the precedent transaction analysis does is that it seeks out the information of specific historical transactions and uses its details to base the price of the target (hence the name precedent).

The main similarities between the comps analysis and the precedent transaction analysis are that they rely on the valuation multiples of other companies to price the targets. They show actual prices that investors paid for comparables.

但是，称它们相同是非常不准确的。以下是可比较的公司分析和先例交易之间的一些关键差异：

• The first one utilizes current market prices, while the second analysis looks for historical deals. Therefore, the precedent transaction will have greater difficulty finding comparables.
• The comparable company analysis values companies using current market conditions, which could be biased depending on the economic cycle.

但是，历史交易的时机可能远非进行先例的交易分析。因此，先例交易分析有时可以指被认为过时的交易。

• The comparable company analysis often results in lower valuations compared to the precedent transaction analysis because there are control premiums that push the valuation higher.

Because the precedent transaction analysis evaluates actual historical deals, the control premiums existed to entice the current owners to sell their company. If this is not subtracted, then any valuation under the precedent transaction can sometimes be considered overvalued.

哪种估值方法是哪种？As with the above, it is hard to say. However, what is worth mentioning is that many people consider the precedent transaction analysis to be more relevant to those working on M&A deals and are looking to merge with or acquire targets.

On the other hand, comps analysis is more widely used across various transactions such as IPOs, private placements, etc.

P/E VS EV/EBITDA

运行COMPS分析时，分析师可以使用各种评估倍数，包括EV/销售，EV/EBIT等。

However, the most common multiples used will be the P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios. Therefore it is vital to know the differences between P/E and EV/EBITDA.

The P/E ratio stands for the price to earnings. Essentially it demonstrates how many times investors would be willing to pay over a company's net income.

如果市盈率为10倍，投资者将有效地支付公司拥有公司收入的10倍。有两种计算市盈率的方法：

• 市值/净收入
• Share price/ Earnings per share

The EV/EBITDA ratio stands for enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. Enterprise value includes the value of equity and the value of debt.

Many people consider the enterprise value to be a more accurate value of the firm's value because it considers the firm's debt obligations.

A benefit of using EBITDA over net income is that you'd be able to see the total earnings potential of a company because net income can be quite distorted due to accounting techniques.

例如，折旧和摊销只是用于在多年内传播资产寿命的会计方法。但是，没有真正的资金流出，因此净收入失真。

由贾斯珀·林（Jasper Lim）研究和撰写|Linkedin

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