The housing market..
在这里的第一次买家（伦敦，但有兴趣听到我们的意见，也有半岛化的意见。）。随着市场中所有波动性，通货膨胀和即将到来的税率上升，猴子对中期的房价有何意见？我无法摆脱我们将要在明年左右做出重大更正的想法。我想伸展自己并购买可以看到自己住了一段时间的地方，但担心这是市场的顶峰。从另一个角度来看，我意识到，随着利率上升，借贷和等待的价格越来越昂贵，最终可能会花费100bps+的利息。感谢任何想法。
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注释 （15)
i've heard this argument for the last 5-10 years from friends, family, industry etc.. Much like timing equity markets, most dont get it right!
I think the issue in London (and similar in the US) is a supply issue. there might be some correction but i doubt there will be a GFC-like one, perhaps more like a brexit-like one of 10%?
as someone who has just sold their first place, dont go for anywhere that is on help-to-buy (if you're considering them), they're 10-15% overpriced and most are fraught with issues
谢谢，有用的见解 - 尤其是WRT帮助购买。
I get the whole thing about not timing the market, but prices are up 10% year to date, more in London, and if you're stretching to afford something, even if prices fall back to pre-pandemic levels you're in trouble right (negative equity etc.)?
There's a lot of US people here commenting, bringing in market dynamics that are not the same to the London property market
我会加2美分
价格会有所下跌，但不像人们想象的那样巨大，伦敦的价格花了2年的时间才从GFC中恢复2年。
What will happen is that as people see the market getting less attractive they will just postpone sale, in an illiquid asset like real estate, this buy and hold mentality, much like inPE, tends to cushion blows
它还强烈取决于你看到to buy and what you're budget is
我们有一个两层市场，可能在GBP1M级别上，没有受到超级影响，因为可以负担得起的人不会受到生活成本的影响，而他们并不是百万千万易于攻击的超级奖杯房屋秋千
500K ISH级别的属性将遭受一些降低，我已经看到我所在地区的减少。
You have decided to kinda buy at the wrong time, pre-rate rise would've been better -> that being said, markets seem to be pricing rates will come back down with an inverted yield curve so if you're comfortable holding on and then getting a variable rate mortgage perhaps?
You could also depending on the area and property use your position, depending on if your a cash buyer or not to negotiate a discount that will give you some head room
A lot depends on personal circumstances which I won't know, if you're looking to buy for next 10 years then whatever go ahead, next 5, maybe wait till 2024
Real estate is a long game not short so the changes to the market usually balance out provided buying in the right location. I am excluding all the short term investors here in my comments because that is a different strategy and has several faults, a bit like shorting.
OP this is the worst time to buy.
Rates have doubled over 4 months (highest since 2009, which was the middle of a global housing market crash)
Stock market is down like 25% from alltime highs. still going down. select blue chip tech stocks are murdered right now
GDP down. by Q2 we may have a confirmed recession (first time since financial crisis, over 12 years)
the average mortage payment has gone up over 40% in the past 4 months (not including any housing price appreciations)
YET - housing continues to go up 25% YoY, people buying waiving inspection contingencies, and getting into bidding wars
有些地方住房比较40％
Does this make sense at all to you?
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Learn more感谢输入 - 这是我的观点。
What's the catalyst for a change in direction of prices then? Assuming there's a significant lag given most people are on 2-5 year fixed mortgages?
All the genius tiktok'ers realizing they can't raise rents by 30% a year infinitely, and the math just not making sense anymore
People outside of finance and tech are broke as fuck right now, especially with cost of chicken nuggets rising 20% a year
催化剂？
layoffs (already happening and will continue as rates rise and the fed dumps assets this summer and beyond)
people realizing they cannot afford their mortgage as prices go up on gas and groceries and MOST IMPORTANTLY student loans stop being in forebearance
people realizing the home they bought is too small and need to move (kids being born)
people having to move for a new job in a tighter economy
试图在终生的房屋中衰老的婴儿潮一代，看着他们的401k被拆除，并意识到他们必须缩小尺寸以解决现金流问题
and simply....fear. people realizing they bought their home off too much FOMO and now wanted to get rid of it at the current high levels before things crash and they are left holding onto an underwater home they never really liked
Buy what you can afford - don't worry about short term corrections if you plan on living there for a long time.
最重要的是，人们需要一个居住的地方，租赁市场在某些地区是残酷的，因此购买是唯一的选择。
in which areas is rental market atrocious? just curious. I'm getting an opposite impression about big cities (NYC, LA) - very limited options for purchase and highly overprices but many more options for rent.
单身家庭NYCsuburbs
This is what people miss.
Dont try to time real estate. Time your finances instead. A lot of people are complaining they cant afford a house now and that's fine, just keep saving. Also if you arent married why the hell are you looking at single family homes. You are competing against people with two incomes lol of course you will lose.
And lastly dont ever view your house as an investment. It is not. Can you make money from your home? Absolutely. But any financial decision should be viewed through the lens of you are buying it for your own enjoyment - similar to a toy like a boat or nice car (though more essential) - NOT to make money. Same for remodeling the kitchen or doing new landscapping. When you view it through this more accurate lens then you wont get yourself into financial trouble.
It's the FOMO buyers, the need to get in because home prices go up (who gives a shit what direction it goes if you will live there the next 15+ years), the 'got to lock in my low rate! but cancel it out by paying 100k more for it!' crowd that gets wrecked when the tide goes out
Housing market is tied to interest rates, expectations the stock market (other store of wealth that people use to finance their purchases). Interest rates just pushed the cost of home ownership for the next buyer up massively, and it's not reflected in market prices yet. Prices will be flattish at best. I would prioritize having liquidity, ie renting instead of buying a house right now. Keep the cash because (a) in a recession your own job security is more at risk - you may have to move or downscale your lifestyle, and (b) stocks are getting cheaper - use the cash to build your stock portfolio and you will have a better return than a house. In London you can always rent.
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