我们都知道股票已经被锤打，但债券市场的表现并没有好得多。我不记得有一次bonds表现不佳。我无法访问良好的数据，但是发生的事情可能会以不好的方式达到记录设置级别。
我认为天空飙升叶lds has to be an issue for stocks. Until recently, stocks had no competition from bonds. With the 10 year treasury at 3:45%, there might be more interest in bonds.
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评论 （14)
I have heard quite a bit of people talking about getting out of stocks and into bonds. I couldn't disagree more;固定收入有意义如果您要进入退休年龄，并希望重新分配保守/低风险投资组合。但是，我一直在告诉人们将10,000美元停放到I键入中，9.62％的速度是不介意的。
Otherwise, I just see the drop in equities as a discount and buying hand over fist when we print new weekly/monthly lows, and selling cash-secured puts on stocks @ prices I'd be glad to own it at. Definitely would avoid the cash-burners/highly levered companies and just stick to companies with good MOAT and growth potential.
worst bond market since 1842 according to WSJ. the question remains - is inflation truly transitory (as in we'll see 7-9% for the full year but next year will settle down) or will it persist longer?
the trouble with bubbles is they take a while to work off, like the tech bubble took 3 years of negative declines to get back to cheap valuations, the nifty fifty/stagflation took even longer
I don't believe long term investors will look to bonds unless things get as crazy as they did in 1980-1982 when you could get >15% on 30 year treasuries, but I can speak for the boomers in my clientele that they are definitely more open to bonds as rates get higher, but the inflation question still remains
我认为只是由于今年的卑鄙开始，您可以see a bear marketbounce, but I'm not backing up the truck in bonds yet, instead hanging onto some cash and being patient
Get into bonds when you think the Fed is close to peak rates. If you got into double digitinterest ratebonds in the 80s and then watched rates get slashed, you made a killing. It's all about interest rates and how high they will go before inflation is tamed. As long as you think rates are still going higher, don't get into bonds.
在最后一点上，“不介入费率是否更高”，我认为这取决于成熟度和您的目标。绝对可以说长时间的债券，但是短/中间，如果它们提供超过通货膨胀的回报，并且您以更高的价格再投资优惠券，而不是一个不好的地方（无论如何都比现金更好），请准备好忍受一些波动率在将它们拉回到标准杆之前
The thing that I personally believe is that the word "inflation" is really muddled at this point. While it's defined as a decrease in thevalue of fiat currency, wemeasure它基于CPIand other price measures. This is a good-but-not-perfect measure, because things like the China trade war and COVID and the Ukraine Invasion and Global Chip Shortage clearly caused increases in prices due to supply shocks in goods and energy. Supply shocks causing prices to rise isnotreal inflation because these shocks will, eventually, dissipate.
因此，我相信一笔大量的“通货膨胀“ - 或增加到CPI - 实际上，我们看到的是短暂(relative to other inflation crises). Car prices are sky high and are a huge part of CPI, for example. I'm not saying that real inflation isn't rising - it clearly is - but I think that many investors, especially retail investors, are over correcting. Yes, there is a meme about money-printer, but the reality, in my opinion, is that demand existed - and will continue to exist - for those dollars as global investors fly to safety. When demand drops for dollars, we will have an issue with real inflation, but I just don't see that happening (just look at Fx rates).
一旦供应线开始放松（具有讽刺意味的是，中国的无循环政策加上我们内在的限制下来的限制可能会减轻22/23的运输流量），我认为价格将开始下跌。您已经可以开始使用中等门票的物品（例如家具）来看到这一点，这些物品很难在20/21中获得，这些物品现在由于需求减少而在价格下降的价格下降。一旦芯片短缺开始减轻，汽车将是接下来的，正如提到的那样，这就是柏忌 - 我们将看到CPI开始减少。
总而言之 - 我认为，非货币供应问题对真正的通货膨胀率夸大了。
大批
This comments reminds of the topic about the biggest lie you have ever heard at work or something like that. Unless I am missing something here, if美联储正在远足费率by 75BPSat a time, they must no longer think it is transitory.
What was this?
https://read.nhbr.com/nh-business-review/2021/06/18/#?article=3820174
In other words, a corollary to what we could be in for today. 50 high flying, can't miss, 'golden' stocks - IBM, Xerox, JCPenny, Kodak, etc. whose valuations and premiums got stretched - then annihilated as Nixon battled stagflation, pulled from gold standard, etc. Obviously took quite some time for many of these to come back, some never did. In that case it took decades for them to come back.
On the bonds front - the curve is basically pancaked at this point, begging to invert itself aggressively. 2's and 30's are basically flat at this point. Some areas around the belly are inverted ever so slightly. The only steepness is basically under a year at this point. Everyone is piling in to shorten as much as possible, WAM's coming down, durations running shorter than benchmarks either at neutral or even below. Not necessarily a fun place to be if you are trying to manage portfolios right now. Pain everywhere - your best bet is to do your best to find value where you can, stay as short as possible, buy anything with a spread that you are reasonably confident won't default near term. Long term still has structural buyers - pension funds, insurance companies - but it would appear that it's not pricing in a massive sustained inflationary period (otherwise I'd think you'd see 30 year a good bit higher IMO).
With something like 9 (or whatever) rate hikes baked in at this point, I do think that we are getting towards a decent entry point (I've already started to enter a position.. blah) on bonds. I view a recession as almost unavoidable at this point, with the Fed at some point this year unwinding those rate cut expectations or outright cutting at some point in the back half of the year. But, as with anything, who knows. Been wrong plenty this year.
1842年,8 ?
I had to verify it and you are correct. Wow, that even goes back before I started following markets, not by much though, haha
Are you not a business school graduate man? This is like Fixed Income 101.
债券为什么做得不好，这不足为奇。利率上升。关系是逆的。债券的飙升收益率实际上与股票价格无关，除了利率上升的一般宏观经济影响，更昂贵的融资以及由此导致的需求降低的需求economy.
It is hard to tell who this is directed at. The magnitude of the declines in prices is what I think is so unusual.
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