LBOquestion (modeling margin contraction)
目前正在研究LBO建模测试，其中EBITDAgrowthis significant (6x) over the5year investment horizon。
通常，在这些模型上，我假设输入=退出Muliple .....但是EBITDAgrowth is this high, yourIRRbecomes pretty在sane over the 5 year horizon. To counter this, would you model multiple contraction from entry to exit (i.e. you get in at a 15xEBITDAand exit at a 10x EBITDA)? Logic behind the contraction being that you pay a higher multiple at entry for the upcoming higher growth, but then exit at a lower multiple due to lower future projected growth. Does this make sense at all?
评论 （5）
当然，在不知道业务的细节的情况下，很难确切回答，但是是的，您是对的。
我在一项协议上工作，该计划的增长是双位数字（高度分散的市场如此巨大的整合机会），我们可以证明支付14倍的费用，但是退出的假设与在11-12X范围内交易的更成熟的公司保持一致。
If the growth prospects of the company 5 years down the road will be meaningfully lower than what they are upon entry, then that seems reasonable to me as well
I don't understand the context of your model, but in a situation like this I would probably try to increasecoGSand/oroperating expenses first(or at least make sure they're reasonable). As long as you have the reasoning to back it up.
This is the correct approach for a modeling test-- if you're generating "insane"IRR在五年的预测中，您的预测可能太乐观了。
下面的文章是实际的正确的方法(某人的d), but you may not have time to do that (or explain it) during a modeling test/debrief.
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