In recent memory, cap rates have typically been above theoverall inflationrate. What I'm trying to wrap my mind around is how conceptually should I be viewing the relationship between cap rates / inflation, but specifically in an environment where cap rates are BELOW inflation. Meaning that on a 6-cap you'd actually be losing money if you can't grow NOI such that thecap rate keeps up> 6％的通货膨胀率。您会更好地将钱投入I-Tbonds或股票市场，或者至少提供超过通货膨胀率的预期回报率吗？应该在核心稳定的产量驱动的投资的背景下查看这个问题，而不是需要大量风险的问题（最多可以通过运营效率来实现略有增值，即没有重建）。
I feel like I'm missing something crucial in how I should be thinking about it.
I say this from someone who just exited their first RE investment (slam dunk), but I did it right before rates started rising. I'd really appreciate any guidance from more experienced folks who have seen a couple cycles and different financing environments. Thanks.
Comments (6)
Nobody assumes 6%inflation将要continue into perpetuity。上限率有些连接，但与通货膨胀没有直接连接。通货膨胀率变化，但从长远来看，平均应超过2-3％。上限率只是您购买的单一年收益的函数，它们与正在进行的通货膨胀无关 - 这取决于您作为房东如何做出反应的决定。
如果您以4％的上限购买资产Y0，但是当年的通货膨胀率达到6％，那么这对您的投资有何影响？理想情况下，您应该在某种程度上是工程OPEX，以便明年表现更好，而在明年的通货膨胀率不超过6％的情况下，您最终会赶上，如果您知道如何操作建筑物（如果没有），您将失去资产。
一年的通货膨胀不会改变上限率。
+1
Also - returns = initialcap rate+ growth. Inflation is a component of growth. So, in theory, even if you expect通货膨胀保留6％inperpetuity, as long as rent/NOI growth track that, your total return should beat inflation.
In theory this is correct but just want to call out for the less knowledgeable folk, in practice catching up can take a LONG time if it's a commercial building with long WALT, because you have to wait for leases to turn beforeyou can mark to market。
让我想到瑜伽士Berra Quote Haha：从理论上讲，理论和实践是相同的。实际上，它们不是。
But yes, good point. In addition to interest rates - part of the reason why long-term NNN deals are so negativelyimpacted by inflation- growth is already baked so you need to make up for incap rate to getsame return. Shorter-term leases (residential, hotels, etc) should allow LLs to track inflation more closely - but always going to be dependent on micro market supply/demand dynamics, regulation, other economic conditions (will luxury hotel room rates continue to rise in stagflationary environment?) Etc…
看看下面的链接。Crow Holdings Research主管刚刚发布了一份白皮书，详细讨论了这一确切问题。我不像我的一些同龄人那样悲观。我认为，FF利率已达到3.50％-4.00％，已经定价为资本市场 /估值，而且大多数价格变动已经发生。在10年的分析中，我们在未来18个月中达到3.50％-4.00％的目标率的速度主要与整体数学无关。
We do need the supply side of the economy to fix itself though which is going to take time. Right now I think a mild recession to cool off demand and let supply catch up would probably benefit the long-term health of the economy.
https://smu.app.box.com/s/bejpudacvmg2ozpdop3hv6hk75j8evz9
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