Master thesis on currency risk management -HELP!!
Hi all, my name is Francesco and I am writing a master thesis about currency risk management.
我之所以寻求帮助，是因为我无法真正决定自己可以发展论文的哪个方向（不是理论部分，而是实用的部分，分析）。
我要解释一下
I would like to make an analysis of 20-40 or more companies during the years 2005-6 to 2011-12 (the financial crisis) from few European countries using a different currency than EUR (so Czech Republic, Slovakia before and after EUR, Hungary, Poland; I have to decide also according to the data availability).
What I will treat in the analysis:
- Do the company hedge currency risk?
- Which instruments they use (swaps, forwards, options, etc.)?
- Categorise the findings by country, size, company financial situation, etc.
Here comes the first question: given that I will take my data from the financial statements of listed companies, which financial parameters do you think are the most adequate to perform such analysis? I mean foreign assets/liabilities, or which ratio I could use?
What do you think, how should I develop the analysis so that I can link the results to my thesis statement?
I imagine the thesis statement like "in these 5 years of analysis, how did the crisis influence the firms, the volatility and the fluctuations of the exchange rate? And how did the firms hedge currency risk?"
实际上，我最大的问题（我想是因为这是我第一次写主论文）是我不知道如何制定分析以支持该陈述。
(also the methodology, what do i have to use? Comparative analysis – tables, graphs, and comment the findings, or regression? I don't know how to set up the regression, which variables are more appropriate for the analysis)
What do you think? Please help me giving shape to this work thanks
Comments (5)
我不是会计师或分析师，但我想很难对公司如何对冲其货币清单，尤其是在使用OTC衍生产品时。尽管公司可能（或可能不？）声明它使用货币交换来对冲其风险，但它很可能已经嵌入了选择。我想也很难理解它们的风险对冲。您还必须考虑时间变化的行为。公司可能会长期使用货币交换或其他产品对冲货币风险。2005 - 6年度的树篱可能已经从2002 - 03年开始。
不确定回归分析的外观。您是否只是作为回归器的指标函数吗？您会回归什么（您在想潜在变量模型吗？）？如果您确实执行统计分析，请尝试控制您的样本有偏见（公开发布财务的非欧洲公司。）
An interesting topic would be how behavior changed before, during, and after the peak crisis periods. This would be more of a panel study, though, than a cross-section.
井井有条，感谢您的快速答案。本周，我将与我的主管见面，我将更好地定义这个话题...我只是想集思广益，然后再去那里。
holdenc, I appreciate your opinion
[quote]An interesting topic would be how behavior changed before, during, and after the peak crisis periods. This would be more of a panel study, though, than a cross-section.[quote] It sounds really interesting. Could you please tell me more about it? How would you measure the behavior change? Which aspect exactly would you analyse?
i will take the data from the public financial statement, the methodology will be a panel study probably.
My comments come with a statistical analysis in mind. When using regression or other methods, you are seeking to understand how the variation in the regressors explains the variance of the dependent variable. To be honest, a sample size of 20-40 companies may not be big enough for a statistical study (even if you use panel study techniques). Do you have access to SNL financial or some other service where you can download line item financial statistics very quickly and then clean the data?
If you want to compare hedging behavior pre-crisis, mid-crisis, and post-crisis you will need to strictly control your data, not only for differences in types of companies (financial vs non-financial), but also for time dependent variables (interest rate environment, economic growth)
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