欧元区：在恢复道路上有挥之不去的风险
早在9月，欧元区经济可能会经历复苏的想法(see post)受到了一些怀疑。但是我们在这里。Eurostoxx50指数在当年增长14％，道琼斯指数上涨2.5％。现在，我们看到大量指标显示欧元区的经济增强。
首先，由于自2012年中期以来，该地区的信贷条件将继续改善，因为贷款增长将首次转变为积极。
资料来源：欧洲央行，Investing.com
Corporate and household loan expansion, while still terrible relative to the US, is on the right path. This is particularly true after the conclusion of the ECB's stress tests (which were a major source of uncertainty in 2013).
资源：ECB
The area's bank deleveraging is ending(see post)最有力的证据可以在加速广泛的货币供应增长中看到。M3扩展趋势一直在击败经济学家的预测。
资源：ECB
Both business and consumer sentiment surveys, which soured significantly after the Russia sanctions went into effect, showed marked improvements recently. Part of the reason is the decline in fuel prices.
资源：贸易Economics
资料来源：Investing.com
Moreover, the labor markets are exhibiting signs of stabilization. Just to be clear, the declining unemployment is highly uneven across the various states and nobody claims the job situation in the Eurozone is in good shape.
By any measure, the job markets in some of the periphery nations are dreadful. But on a relative basis, hiring across the euro area has been improving.
RBS: - Baby steps. The Spanish labour market has enjoyed its best year since 2007 - a start on a 23.4% unemployment rate.
资源：RBS
A number of these surprises to the upside are reflected in the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which shows the Eurozone diverging from the US.
资源： @sobata416, @valuewalk, @HedgeLy
Going forward, the sharp deterioration of the euro and the ECB's expected massive bond buying program should halt deflationary pressures (although just as the case in Japan, inflation is likely to remain below the ECB's target for a while). Weaker euro may also help the area's exporters.
资料来源：Investing.com
但是欧元区的经济尚未超出树林。回收的最大和最直接风险仍然是希腊的发展。尽管欧元集团已经踢了罐头，但在桥梁融资量的成熟之前，情况可能会迅速恶化。储户继续从希腊银行撤出资金。
资料来源：@schuldensuehner
Nobody wants to get caught with a Cyprus type situation where people's property was confiscated by the state via deposit haircuts. An even worse scenario would be having deposits forcibly converted into drachmas that will find no bid in the FX market. The Greek government is already taunting the Eurogroup with creative drachma notes designs (Greece will need take lessons from Zimbabwe and add a few zeros to some of these notes).
资源：@AmbroseEP
当这些存款离开时，希腊银行失去了有限的私人资金来源，并越来越依靠希腊银行获得紧急流动性援助（ELA）贷款。实际上，投资者几乎没有信心银行在上一笔救助后足够大写以承受这种过渡。这就是为什么仅在今天，银行业遭受了10％的命中。
Why does this relatively small nation present such a risk to the Eurozone's nascent recovery? The ELA loans are financed via Target2 as the Bank of Greece borrows from the Eurosystem. In a Grexit scenario the Bank of Greece will be unable (or unwilling) to repay these loans, forcing the Eurosystem (the ECB) to take a significant hit.
毫无疑问，EMU可以轻松承受这样的事件 - 在更大的方案中，这并不是一笔钱。但是，失去信心和与重组欧洲央行以及对其他外围国家传染的恐惧相关的政治噩梦可能会使欧元区恢复衰退。意大利，葡萄牙和西班牙的存款人是否也会开始将其存款移出，以免被“ drachmatized”？经济学家经常伪造，这与特定的欧元数量无关，而更多地与恐惧心理有关。
但是，如果欧元组以某种方式稳定了希腊的状况，那么欧元区可能会稳定的经济复苏。接下来的几个月至关重要。
Preview & download comment as image
You can download this screenshot as image or copy to clipboard using browser's context menu