不要让您的退休帐户将美国视为理所当然
伙计们 - 看到某人发表评论（并获得最有用的奖励），“从字面上看来没有任何不利之处”将所有人的储蓄投入TQQQ，我想重新发布以下内容，看看是否有人有任何类似的想法。我最初不到一年前就发布了它（因此，确切的数据有些旧）。它获得了几个香蕉，但没有我希望的评论或反馈：
不好一周前，感恩节发生了，我想到了很多我非常感谢的事情。朋友，家人，工作，兴趣等 - 列表还在不断。但是，有一个更长的列表，我对这些事情还不够感激 - 我认为是理所当然的事情，我不认识到的事情对我产生了积极影响，我可以感到高兴。这让我想到了我和从表面上看其他许多人的一件事，认为是理所当然的：美国股票市场的历史表现，以及我出生，长大并继续前进的相对商业友好的环境上班。
I know it sounds a little silly but hear me out. I can tell that so many people take the US market for granted. I know this because I frequently hear people talking about how their retirement account or otherwise long-term investments are going to compound at an average of 10%+ annually. They cite a relatively short historical track record of the S&P500, expecting that to continue indefinitely into the future. There are others, a little more conservative and probably slightly more realistic, who expect something like 7% annually.如果他们了解许多其他发达国家对自己的国内市场期望的公民，这些人将感到惊讶。
我已经看过来自许多不同国家的许多退休帐户，养老金等，事实证明，他们明显的投资家庭偏见是毁灭性的。
For example, if I, from the day I was born in 1996 (aka more than half of one's expected working career), invested $1 into the:[[disclaimer, I realize this is a simplistic, cherry-picked analysis that can be easily manipulated to a great magnitude should the time period be altered; I'm just using this to illustrate a point]]
美国股市(S&P500): I would have about$ 5.50。很棒！有了这样的表现，人们期望它继续上升，上升和上升并不奇怪。
英国股市（英国FTSE 1000）：我会$ 1.60。对于那些做数学的人来说，这并不是20多年以上的特别巨大回报。
日本股市(Nikkei 225): I would have about$1.30。That's even worse! Can you imagine if my grandparents set aside some money when I was born in a college fund, check that money several years later, and saw it only made 30%?
瑞士股市（瑞士市场指数）：我会$ 1.80。
冰岛股市(SE ICEX): I would have about$1.00。谈论一项不错的投资！
Now, not every non-US country has had similarly dismal performance. I believe a couple even outpaced the US. But this begs the question of what will happen in the future. While the market is an intricate and complex machine, with an uncountable number of variables imputed into it oscillations, it doesn't take a genius to determine why some countries' markets outperform others. I do wonder-- or I should say I'm scared about-- whether the US might see long periods of stagnant returns, similar to many of these other countries. Not to steer this in a political direction, but the emergence of a number of anti-free market politicians may be one of many threats to the prosperity enjoyed in America.This is merely something to think about-- those of us who have benefitted from the upward swing in the US market should be extremely grateful; however, will those who toss a couple dollars from their paychecks into some passiveETFand expect their comfortable retirement to be provided to them by a 10% annual return be disappointed? Only time will tell!
Comments (34)
在美国，毫无疑问，我们很幸运。在过去的几十年中，我们的进展和衰退不足，我们做得很好。我认为最近十年是美国市场与您列出的市场的许多不同。如果您在TQQQ帖子上看到了我的评论，我提到，如果OP充满信心并且想愿意，也可能会停止。但是我自己意识到市场不上涨，尤其可能被消灭。
TQQQ certainly may not be the perfect thing to invest in going forward, especially if people think we in America have been lucky over the last decade.
That said, I think Global Equities have done well overall. If I invested $1 into MSCI All Country World Index in 2006, I'd have $2.89 today, which I would feel ok about. I think the US admittedly has powered a lot of that growth, so it may not be a perfect representative of diversification.
sub 3% GDP growth is the norm, US is a mature economy as well as our stock market. If you want strong returns invest in the BRIC nations and other developing economies
- 十年前的主流金融学院。让我们看看结果如何。
只要美国保持最强的自由et society in the world that rewards capitalism/hard work then it will outpace global returns. But, like freedom, we shouldnt take it for granted - and should fight for it at every chance
On a similar note, if I invested $1 into MSCI Emerging Markets in 2006, I'd have $2.29
If I invested $1 into MSCI World Index (Developed Countries) in 2006, I'd have $2.95
我们的政府将不允许股票市场持续下滑。股票只会上升
像你一样的智障ER
- 354manbetx
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354manbetx好的问题
He's got a point. The stock market was going up because during the height of COVID.
This isn't the right attitude to have. If anything, returns will be higher in the future as people no longer accept the shitty historical returns you cite. There are also literally hundreds of millions of morepeople actively trading在市场上投资于美国市场。将其与新资产类别（加密货币）的兴起相结合，您有机会获得新的未来。
猜猜我与你不同，但是在十年来的回报率的任何回报率上，我都不会感激不尽。这是一种可悲的面包屑心态。努力更好。
我想破产或有钱。奇怪的是，在过去的一个世纪中，美国的多元化股票表现是理所当然的，尤其是考虑到当今历史上和全球范围内有多少异常值。
您能为此扩展吗？我不确定我会得到您的理由/逻辑：“将来退货会更高，因为人们不再接受您所引用的卑鄙的历史回报”
杜德（Dude）的人厌倦了你，而卑鄙的回报。他们想要自由，这就是那个简单的人。只需浏览一下房间即可。事情正在改变手表。
don't know where the hate for my profession is coming from, but if you're sick of people in my job, that's fine, I don't give a fuck about your opinion of my job, but that still doesn't address my question.
您可以扩大观点吗？
"they want freedom it's that simple man" what do you mean by this? of course people want freedom, what does this have to do with your original quote that I'm curious about"returns will be higher in the future as people no longer accept the shitty historical returns you cite"
“环顾四周阅读房间”和“事情正在改变手表”是什么意思
what things are changing? I don't follow the logic, you seem to be spouting out ideas without a logical if this then that thought pattern, and since I don't already know what you're talking about, I'm asking for explanation.
辣椒？
VTWAX。从长远来看读取股票。
vtwax并为婴儿潮一代放松
量子(ˈkwänt)n：一个专家，一个越来越多地了解的人，直到他们一无所知。
这一代人的迹象表明，他们的整个投资历史一直在牛市中，年收益率12％，而不是对此感到满意
当音乐停止时，将会有很多没有椅子的傻瓜。
这就是为什么要投资$ vt或$ vtwax的好主意，以及为什么我要做更多的事情。我认为先锋或忠诚did a study showing that, while the US has historically outperformed, there are decades/periods where international stocks perform better and you actually improve your risk-reward ratio a bit by diversifying internationally, even if total return drops a bit.
I also do agree with you and am a bit concerned about how long America can continue to be the place of prosperity from the trends I'm seeing. The older generation has it great still and will cling to it till they die, but I'm noticing that certain goals that were achievable for my peers growing up are quickly becoming out of reach. For example, I'm making an income that statistically puts me at least in the top 5% of earners my age, yet I would have had 0 shot of owning property in Southern California if it weren't for a once-in-a-century pandemic that allowed me to live at home, save on rent, and invest in stock market that literally cratered and is now near new all-time highs almost overnight. If even people like me need extreme circumstances/outside help to afford housing, college, etc., I can't imagine how much the average person is and will continue to struggle. That's not even to mention all the social unrest that's leading to declining birth rates, etc. that will rear their ugly heads down the road.
因此，撇开所有这些，我认为您非常谨慎地意识到我们在一个长期以来表现如此之大的国家非常幸运，并且厌倦了实现类似的，双数位数的复杂回报。
@calpers
Have their returns been trash? Haven't kept up with their performance recently. Not fully related but it's always puzzled me why there aren't as many public pension shops/etc. that have direct investing teams (particularly in alternative assets like RE,PE, etc.) vs the international players like the Australian superannuation funds, the Canadians of course, Singaporean and the Emirati funds and others.
量子(ˈkwänt)n：一个专家，一个越来越多地了解的人，直到他们一无所知。
像您这样的单身人士不应该拥有SFH财产。房价飙升，以及低利率的原因是双收入家庭的上升。
低利率，分区法和针对新建筑的监管。完美的鸡尾酒，用于高高的住房价格
目前有两种现象正在发生，并且将继续无限期地发生1）全球和美国增长的速度正在放缓，2）创新和破坏的速度正在加速。如果您投资于旧经济，昨天甚至今天的公司的公司，您将被抛弃。但是，如果您投资于明天的公司并接受中断（也许不如Cathie Wood极端），您将繁荣起来。抛弃世界上的Viacombbs，购买Rokus，或者至少聘请为您做的经理。此外，我将为您提供以下声明，即资本分配者已经接受（如资产流量所示）。
“世界上有三种类型的公司。
1: Companies that are technology companies.
2：正在成为技术公司的公司。
3: and Companies that are being disrupted by technology companies."
Is Sweetgreen a technology company like the vegans at their executive sweet pathetically claim? No! But they are attempting to become on. Is Subway being disrupted by their shitty legacy business. Yes. Has Chipotle and Shake Shack successfully embraced technology? Yes.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, these are contradictory statements
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