Advanced Financial Modeling (AFM)

Advanced Financial Modeling (AFM) is a term with a broad definition used to describe many different methods in财务建模（FM）that are more complex and require more professional skills than basic modeling. These methods may require a lot of statistical knowledge and, in some cases, might involve learning how to program to create models in a financial modeling program or a programming language.

In many cases, advanced financial modeling contains many of the same types of financial models but looks at them in much more detail and uses complex methods to derive the model's assumptions.

学习财务建模并非易事。试图找出建立财务模型的最佳方法可能会令人沮丧。大多数人花费数小时研究和阅读他人的意见，试图学习最佳方法。

The problem with this approach is that there are many different ways to build a financial model. In addition, every project has different needs and budgets, leaving many feeling confused and unsure of which technique is best for their situation.

不要觉得您自己弄清楚这一切！这里有一些用于将高级财务建模技术应用于任何项目的提示，因此您可以立即开始。

场景和方案分析

Scenarios are great because they allow you to visualize all future possibilities. You can create different scenarios to account for different outcomes or potential changes to your business environment.

方案分析是一个过程,看某些事件有限公司怎么样uld affect your financial model (either positively or negatively). Once you've created your scenario, you'll need to analyze the results and make the necessary adjustments. This way, you will be prepared for any changes that come your way.

例如，假设您想知道如何增加interest rates会影响您的net income。为此，您将创建一个方案，其中利率增加了0.5％。然后，您的分析需要显示净收入在0-0-0.5％的利率和三年内利率1-1.5％之间的差异。

一种类型的方案分析称为应力测试。分析投资时，公司将考虑一些最糟糕的企业场景，或者将来的未来事件如何影响公司。最近，法规使得对测试投资进行压力，尤其是在有风险投资的大型银行。

Analysts可以通过找到standard deviation的收入和seeing what might happen if the company were to perform one or two standard deviations away from its mean. In statistics, two standard deviations account for about 95% of probable events, making it a very reliable measurement of the worst-case scenario.

To learn more, check out our video on scenario analysis, part of our Financial Statement Modeling Course.

敏感性分析

One of the most important aspects to consider when building a financial model is sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis is a process that determines how changes in the various inputs affect the results of the model. A good sensitivity analysis should be able to answer three major questions:

• 所有可能的变量更改是什么？
• 这些变化将如何影响结果？
• What is the rate of change for every unit change in input value?

重要的是要注意，这不仅仅是探索积极的后果，还涉及探索负面后果。这使用户清楚地了解了可能发生的事情，无论它看起来多么可怕或不太可能。例如，在许多情况下，公司可能会询问其分析师某些变量将如何影响投资，并期望他们能够创建反映这些变化及其总体影响的模型。

Additionally, it is important to determine what percentage change is required to be considered significant. For example, if revenue projection increases by one percent but operating expenses decrease by five percent, the net income would decrease by four percent. If this difference is less than two percent, then it isn't significant and should not factor into the decision-making process for this project. You may test these variables through a direct or indirect sensitivity analysis method. In the direct method, variables are changed in absolute terms, meaning that specific numbers are changed. For example, if revenues were changed from $3 million to $5 million, the direct method would be used. In contrast, the indirect method changes numbers by a certain percentage. For example, imagine that the same $3 million in revenues was marked up by 20%. It is important to understand that sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis are two different processes that look at different things.The biggest distinction between these two approaches is that sensitivity analysis typically looks at many individual variables and focuses on how much they are likely to change and how big of an impact they would have on the company's operations. In contrast, scenario analysis looks at the impact of larger events that may affect multiple variables in the business and typically analyzes extreme scenarios such as best-case and worst-case scenarios.Below is a video from our财务报表建模课程这解释了灵敏度分析。

动态标题和功能

建立财务模型的第一步是决定您的标题和功能。这包括模型的限制，做出的假设以及任何key performance indicators (KPIs)or metrics included.

标题在财务模型的介绍中起着至关重要的作用。但是，此步骤最重要的是确保灵活性。这意味着您可以随时添加或取出功能，因为您改变主意或更多地了解该行业。

灵活性对于执行场景或灵敏度分析也可能非常有价值。改变并摆脱某些变量以查看不同的方案是任何综合财务模型的一部分。

在建立财务模型之前概述所有假设也很重要，因为它可以帮助建立市场的风险和市场变化。这些假设应该清楚而简洁，以使它们井井有条，并与可能需要了解他们的其他人分享它们，以了解这些假设的到达方式。

在设计标题和功能时，使用图表和图形可能会有所帮助，以便人们容易理解它们。

Ability to consolidate multiple businesses or units

Consolidation is a key business process. It's an important part of the financial modeling process to always be aware of.

Here are three reasons why consolidation is so important:

• A company might want to consolidate its units to get a better idea of how they're all doing together
• 它有助于根据另一种趋势来识别一个单元的趋势
• It helps to observe how the individual units of the company are performing against each other

合并在零件或合并模型的总和中至关重要，也是合并模型的重要方面。所有这些模型通常涉及估值单独的单位或项目及其合并以反映整个业务的价值。在分析不同行业中许多不同细分市场的企业时，通常可以使用这一点，而不是计算集团的整个业务增长。

合并和收购can be complicated consolidations because there can be major changes in the business that will affect the company's value. In many cases, businesses merge to raise their valuation, and there may be favorable common expenses that can be reduced through a merger. These types of variables are important to take into consideration when consolidating businesses.

财务编程

As finance is becoming a complex field with traders looking for ways to get an edge over competitors, programming has made its way into accounting and finance. It is especially helpful when dealing with large amounts of data or where speed is of utmost importance.

财务中使用的常见编程语言包括Python，，，，C++，，，，SQL， 和爪哇。Python经常用于金融，因为它很容易阅读和理解，并且具有广泛的用途。

编程正在获得财务上的立足点，因为它允许交易者制作复杂的模型，以使用大量数据和更多数量的变量，这些变量有望提高所使用的模型的准确性。

定量融资被认为是一项复杂，数学和基于统计的纪律，并使用繁重的编程。下面说明了一些用编程创建的最常见的预测模型。

The random forest model is a program that creates decision trees, which essentially asks a yes or no question that is meant to divide securities into two groups, usually based on certain financial metrics. A random forest model uses multiple decision trees to negate any individual mistakes the decision tree might make to find a collection of securities that meet certain criteria and perform well.

The general linear model (GLM) is the basis for many statistical models such as regression analysis. This model takes into account how multiple variables may affect a continuous variable. For example, this model is used to forecast and predict growth rates for companies and can be used for sensitivity analysis by looking at different variables.

梯度增强模型可改善弱假设，以创建更准确和预测的模型。它通常与决策树一起使用，并且通常优于随机森林模型。它的目的是调整弱学习者或模型，使预测比随机猜测更好，并使它们更强大。

How to learn advanced financial modeling?

您想做的第一件事就是找到一个财务建模资源articles that align with your interests.

如果您完全是财务建模的新手，那么一种好方法是钉住基本面。这将使学习财务建模变得更加容易，并使您能够更好地了解他人的说明，并帮助衡量什么是好的建议。这些基本原理包括学习会计和结构不同的财务报表， 和how to useExcelto organize data and create表和图。

学习FM的另一种方法是参加有关该主题的课程。许多大学提供的FM课程在不同的难度水平上，甚至为他们提供信用。在您拥有一些工作经验之前，您可能无法参加这些课程，但是如果您正在寻找领域的高级知识，则可以是一个不错的选择。

A third option is to purchase an FM book or attend an FM training session with a company specializing in this type of training. This will give you all sorts of tips and tricks without having to spend hours searching online for answers or investing in expensive college courses.

更重要的是，您选择一般学习并保持决心。最好的学习方法是开始。不要期望从一开始就成为专业人士，但是开始学习基本模型并尝试创建它们会变得更加容易，并且在您通过反复试验学习时花费更少的时间去做。

当你了解更多,它会给你勒的边缘arn the more complex analysis that we talk about in this article. The most important thing to understand is that "time in the market is more important than timing the market." The sooner you get started, the faster you will learn. It can be frustrating at times, but you will get better results if you are persistent.

No matter how you choose to approach learning FM, plenty of methods are available, all of which are viable options. So have fun and good luck!