Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis (FA)is the technique of analyzing andvaluing安全based on the value of the underlying business/ assets. This entails considering everything from global events that can affect consumer behavior to firm management to交易倍数- anything that can affect the value of the business underlying the security.

The idea behind FA is that investors value a security based on the underlying business and then trade it based on whether it is overvalued or undervalued by comparing the calculated value with the security's current price.

This follows the assumption that all assets will be priced at their true or "fair market" value over time, which may not always be correct in the markets.

如果一个安全is being traded below its true value, fundamental analysts would see it as being被低估了, signaling a buying opportunity. In contrast, if a security is traded at a priceabove its fair market value, it is deemed overvalued. It indicates a selling opportunity before it returns toits intrinsic value。

Value investorWarren Buffetis one of the most successful proponents of this type of analysis. It is one of the very few investors who have outperformed the market over a long time.

The other method used by investors istechnical analysis（TA）涉及将安全价格独立于基础市场处理并分析历史市场数据，例如价格和数量，以预测证券的未来价格。

基本分析：重要性和类型

FA用于确定安全的公允价值。基本分析师的工作围绕着确保接受建议的投资者能够做出明智的投资决策。

As FA is a time-consuming process that involves looking at various factors affecting the target business, most investors delegate this work to fundamental analysts. This is due to a lack of both time and knowledge to conduct the same independently.

For instance, a casual investor may see that the price of a stock has been increasing for the past few months and decide to buy some shares due to the fear of missing out (FOMO) on profits due to rising prices.

In contrast, a fundamental analyst would take the time required to perform尽职调查关于股票及其基础业务，仅当他们的分析揭示其价格低廉的情况下投资，没有对其价格实际市场变动的考虑。

Similar to how data scientists and analysts form insights from data, FA involves forming conclusions on the value of companies and potential opportunities based on those conclusions. FA is split into two based on the type of data being analyzed, namely:

• Qualitative analysis(using quantitative data)
• Quantitative analysis(using qualitative data)

当将两人配对时，它们提供了包含定量和定性方面的股票的整体图片，为投资者提供了分析以基于其投资决定。

Here is a video summarizing the two types of FA:

Qualitative fundamental analysis: What is it?

Qualitative fundamental analysis involves looking at factors affecting the performance of a business that cannot be quantified. Some essential qualitative factors that have a huge influence over the valuation of businesses are:

• 管理
• 竞争优势
• Business model

Analysis of a company'smanagementinvolves investigating how competent, experienced, and well-suited the managers are to their job.

由于管理层负责大多数业务的运营和资本分配决策，因此可以将其视为定性分析中最关键的方面。

揭示和分析关键决策者以前的成就和管理风格对于洞悉公司的未来方向和绩效，例如其增长和增加利润的潜力。

组织的competitive advantage是定性分析的另一个重要因素。它决定了组织的独特性，这可能会影响想要破坏市场的潜在竞争者的入境障碍。

公司的竞争优势越好，新竞争对手进入市场并复制策略和产品，反之亦然，反之亦然。

Therefore, the more competitive advantage a company has, the higher the fair value of the company. This concept has been referred to as an "economic moat" by Warren Buffett, who is one of, if not the best, investors in the world to use FA.

从本质上讲，像物理护城河一样，经济护城河将公司与竞争对手分开，这使得局外人无法通过复制其业务策略或产品来侵入其市场空间。

为了更好地解释这一点，我们想将可口可乐作为一个源于其品牌价值的公司的典范。由于每个人都知道饮料并将其与品牌联系在一起，因此出现了这种经济护城河。

Even though Coca-Cola's main product is simply a sweet beverage, its brand name makes it impossible for new businesses to enter the industry as potential competitors, despite the industry's low barrier of entry.

公司的另一个例子永川市强劲c moat would be Apple, as it has a high level of品牌意识(consumers know what Apple is and what it does, and the quality it provides) just like Coca-Cola, as well as a强大的客户群due to having high customer satisfaction with their products.

总而言之，竞争优势是衡量复制企业成功的独特和难以独特的，具有很高的竞争优势是高度长期价值的有力指标。

Acompany's business modeL对于定性分析也至关重要，因为它是判断和衡量公司成功的关键标准。这是因为业务模型是指公司在产生价值的工作，并与其收入模型密切相关，这就是企业从其提供的价值中赚钱的方式。

例如，公司的业务模型可以通过设置服务软件包的收入模型来提高其企业客户内部流程的效率，以供客户选择。

A fundamental analyst could investigate how impactful the organization's business model is in creating value for its shareholders and whether or not its revenue model is profitable.

In addition to these three key aspects, there are also other qualitative factors to take into account before forming an opinion of the value of a security.

其中包括有关最新定性信息的支持证据，例如公司将制造的头条新闻，公司行动/治理，机构参与（例如来自对冲资金或者mutual funds), employee satisfaction, and supplier relationships.

除了定性因素外，FA还涉及查看诸如证券交易委员会之类的定量因素（SEC）像10-K report and the10-Q report和财务报表, which will be elaborated upon in the next section.

Quantitative fundamental analysis: What is it?

定量基本分析涉及研究企业的表现和决定是否相当重视。

这种分析形式基于财务报表中的数字以及进行的计算；这三个财务报表用于基本定量分析的最多使用的是：

• Balance sheet
• 收入证明
• 现金流量表

Thebalance sheetprovides analysts with information on theassets and liabilitiesof a company as of a particular day. Analyzing the balance sheet as part of quantitative financial analysis, analysts can understand the sources from which the business raises money for its assets and can help them determine if it is over-leveraged or at what multiple net assets it is trading at.

The收入证明provides information on how a company generates its revenue and whether or not it is operating at a profit or loss over a specific period of time.

A closer analysis of the income statement generally reveals insights into how a business uses its profits. One such use would be to reinvest the profits into the business throughresearch and development（研发）冒险，希望将来增加利润。

Another use case would be to buy capital assets, thereby increasing future productivity (this can be inferred by increasing折旧费用in the income statement).

The现金流量表provides information on how a company generates and uses its cash to operate the business and make investments. It also shows how much money is raised from borrowings and equity.

公司总体现金头寸的净机芯分为三个；来自运营活动，投资活动的现金以及融资活动现金的现金。

It gives a cash-based account of how a business generates revenue and is, therefore, more difficult to manipulate than the income statement. The bank balances are used for reconciliation (which is harder to manipulate compared to intangible expenses such as depreciation).

However, these numbers are generally useless when used as individual data points, which is why analysts use ratios to help connect the dots to form information that can be compared across multiple entities. Common ratios used as part of quantitative FA include:

• 价格/收入(P/E) ratio
• 价格/账面价值(P/B) ratio
• 债务/权益(D/E) ratio
• 股权回报（鱼子）
• 资产收益率(ROA)
• 目前的比例
• Net Profit Margin (NPM)

These ratios allow fundamental analysts to compare the valuation of different companies within the same industry. The most commonly used ratio is the P/E ratio which allows an investor to look beyond the price of a stock to see which company could be the best value.

通常，P/E比率越高，公司越高估。

这是一个出色的视频，提供了定量分析的深入解释：

Fundamental Analysis: How To Do It?

基本分析有助于更好地了解企业的​​价值，以便投资者可以就投资哪些证券做出明智的决定。

Since it considers all factors, micro, and macro, that could affect a company's value, there are two primary methods of performing FA: the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach, both of which are opposites of the other.

两者中更常见的是自上而下的方法，当分析是从宏到微观角度进行的，涉及在检查之前，请考虑到广泛的市场状况和公司的各个方面，例如管理质量财务报表和制作计算。

使用自上而下的方法，可以通过以下步骤执行FA：

1. Research the market and then the company

从安全方面看一见，第一步是了解市场的整体表现，然后查看公司相对于市场的性能以及FA的其他定性元素，例如确定公司的业务模型。

For example, one would consider whether the industry's market size is going up or down, whether a company is following the trend or against it, and how the business model affects its performance.

2. Analyze current and potential competitors

一家执行的公司是为投资提供良好价值的公司，衡量其绩效的方法之一是将其与竞争对手进行比较。在这里，使用定性FA的竞争优势之类的概念用于识别能够胜过竞争的公司。

3. Analyze the company's financial statements

在这里，投资者通过研究公司的财务报表来理解各种因素，例如现金流，其运作方式和支出资本，从而开始专注于自上而下方法的微观方面。

Calculating ratios from the data gathered in these statements can help compare the information againstcomparable companiesin the same industry.

4. Understand the company's future plans

Similar to how researching the company's current and past performance is essential, it is also necessary to understand what projects and initiatives the business has planned for the future and what this means for future profitability and growth of the business.

This is due to the fact that FA generally focuses on long-term investments, and as such, the future direction of a company is a crucial aspect of it.

5.保持知情

Last but not least, staying up-to-date with the news and information about companies that one has invested in is vital to ensure that those long-term investments continue to be beneficial and are not extremely overvalued.

如果一个lot overvalues the company, the investor can close out positions to realize the profit on the same before the prices fall to represent the fair value.If we want to use the bottom-up approach, we would do the exact reverse and start with analyzing the company first before analyzing the broader market.

Fundamental Analysis (FA) Vs. Technical Analysis (TA)

The two main ways of measuring the value of securities are fundamental分析和技术分析。

FA provides investors with information onwhat要购买的证券，而技术分析允许交易者对whento buy these securities. This is achieved by analyzing price trends by scrutinizing market data like indicators of the price and volume of a security.

这些趋势和模式是技术分析的基石。技术分析依赖于过去的交易数据和基本principles of economics，例如供需。因此，理解更简单，因为要担心的组成部分较少，但仍然很难学习和掌握。

Technical analysis is simpler to understand because it narrows down most of the information gathered by fundamental analysts - like management and competitive advantage - into one main point of concentration, the stock's market price.

This allows technical analysts to research the history of price movements and common trends and patterns that form, as opposed to performing qualitative FA in addition to quantitative, which requires heavy and messy calculations.

Despite these differences, both forms of analysis still have some common features. Neither can be considered a better form of analysis as they both have their purpose and style that could suit one individual but not another.

最好在确定要投资于哪些公司以获得两全其美的公司时，在确定哪种风格之前尝试两种样式安全analysis。

Similarities

Both forms of analysis are done to find the optimal price for purchasing a stock and require extensive research from publicly available data. They are also susceptible to sudden changes in the market's circumstances, such as political, legislative, and economic events.

尽管他们的方法有所不同，但两者都旨在确定购买或出售股票的最佳价格。

差异

The differences between FA and TA are listed below.

• FA着眼于影响基本业务的经济和财务因素。相比之下，技术分析着眼于当前和先前的价格转移，并使用此数据试图预测未来的价格变动。
• FA is generally used to make long-term investment decisions, while technical analysis is usually used for short-term investment decisions.
• FA uses information about the company from media sources such as news about their management, future plans, and legal filings such as financial statements. At the same time, technical analysis involves using tradingcharts来自市场数据。

FA: Advantages and Disadvantages

Advantages

Fundamental analysis is generally focused on long-term investment decisions. If done right can lead to higher than average returns because of low incidental costs such as slippage due to the low trading frequency. Legendaryinvestor Warren Buffettis a prime example of a successful fundamental investor. Since it is used for long-term investing, it requires less monitoring than technical analysis.

可以将其用于长期投资，可以比作种子，然后让它成长为树，以收获未来的奖励。

Due to the low frequency of trading, this method leads to lower execution risk as trading does not occur very fast.

缺点

FA需要对影响当前和未来业务的所有因素进行彻底分析。这导致许多预测可能准确，因此可能与分析公司分析师一样好。

Other disadvantages specific to FA are:

• It considers the investment long-term rather than short-term, so investors may suffer a loss rather than a profit in the near future. In addition to this, there may be some big moves in share prices that occur in a short timeframe which is not suited to the style of FA.
• It is more time-consuming than technical analysis due to the depth of analysis required.
• It requires an understanding of how to read financial statements, the various caveats used by companies in their financial statements, and the calculations derived from them, which may be difficult for regular individuals who have just started investing.

Researched and authored by Jasper Lim|LinkedIn

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