大家好，
So here we are, france got downgraded, among with other countries (Austria and slovakia).
星期一的剧本是什么？我正在考虑在周一开业（BNP，SOCGEN和Credit Agricole）上缩短CAC和主要法国银行。想想其他可能遭受银行和共同基金降级的股票的股票吗？
此外,由于这是法国降级,这是否意味着that the ESFS would be possibly downgraded too since the efsf is mainly supported by french and german debt and is structured a bit like aCDO... ??如果是的话，那么狗屎即将到来。
Comments (23)
轻松触发。这个消息还没有问世。
杜德（Dude），如果是在Twitter上，那就是现实。
This ^
There are some vague reports on reuters and French TV about the downgrade, but nothing concrete.
一个nyways, looks like France is as creditworthy as the US.
It's a good list to short, but as others have said, the news has not been finalized yet. Also,ETFsthat have heavy allocation to French exposure would be good, too. Ticker: EWQ
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354manbetx是的，确实，法国和其他国家尚未被降级，但在法国媒体和欧洲裔中，它到处都是。我的意思是，我们一直期望自几个月以来降级，但是我们都说评级机构没有球，就像美国债务一样……它一定会发生。
一个ccording to les echos, the "possible downgrade news" will be given at 22h30 in France, just after the US market closes. I tell you, when news has to be released on a Friday evening when all the market are closed, something big is about to be released in the wild...
你们如何看待对EFSF的评论？
Here are two links about the possible downgrade:
http://www.euronews.net/2012/01/13/sp-to-cut-some-euro-zone-countries-r…
http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/monde/actu/0201841233930-la-f…
Don't blow your load just yet.
yeah go ahead and short right after the open when al lthe other funds are panic selling at the same time, making a huge imbalance and making the stocks open much lower (assuming theyre anything like American stocks) -- after which theyll bounce from considerably and squeeze you out.
I agree that they'll open lower on poor market sentiment...but i dont think funds are going to panic...unless the vast majority of funds holding French debt are under stipulations that it has to be AAA rated.
标准普尔和穆迪毫无价值。
我不能详细介绍很多细节（显然），但是我有可靠的权威Socgen's exposure to Greece is whatI称为相当最小的。用你会的。
他们不会恐慌和液体ate EVERYTHING but just saying there will be larger holders who will sell off a portion at the open for risk measures as stated in their fund's prospectus or endowment charter or the like :)
It's now confirmed...
Bloomberg:
爆炸新闻
FRANCE, ITALY RATINGS CUT BY S&P; PORTUGAL CUT TO JUNK
BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16552623
loadzz away ..pshhhh
Yayyy.
I wonder how the market is going react on Monday?
Sell the rumor, buy the news?
I remember reading an article stating that France has 426 billion of italian debt when Italian interest crossed the barrier of 7%. I don't think there was much confidence (apart from the french people themselves) after those news items.
Is it really going to a big collapse next week? I have a hard time believing it will...
I am more concerned about possible contagion throughout the rest of the Eurozone than France itself. The calm achieved in Europe is so fragile that this event could easily cause a yield spike for the PIGS as investors flee European debt.
France is a global country, with large, interconnected banks. These banks are already having a hard time meeting the new capitalization requirements; this can't help.
I wouldnt be so fast as to short french banks, I think the downgrade is somewhat priced already. I would expect a rebound towards the end of the week, I would buy some monday and tuesday wating for that to happen, but that is just me :D.
您认为每个带有Etrade帐户的小丑现在都在想？由于每个人都已经知道将要发生的事情，所有欧元银行股票都将暴跌。因此，他们将尝试比实际的HF's, traders, etc, and go short. Big money will watch it come in and then squeeze the fuck out of them when the short interest pops enough and they all scramble to cover. If it happens, I go levered long on any dip Monday and get a nice vacation out of it by the end of the week.
When in doubt...do the opposite of what retail investors are doing.
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